Famed for its ethnic and linguistic diversity, Dagestan is Russia’s most ethnically diverse province and in total is home to more than 30 languages and numerous ethnic groups, including Avars, Dargines, Kumyks, Lezgins and Laks. Dagestan is also the birthplace of the famous Imam Shamil, the legendary fighter who in the 19th century spearheaded fierce resistance by tribesmen of Chechnya and Dagestan to the spread of the Russian Empire. The strategic importance of Dagestan is also considerable with its capital, Makhachkala, a major seaport on the Caspian Sea, with access to Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. It is the only Russian Caspian port that does not freeze over.However, these days Dagestan is becoming increasing unstable as spiraling problems including separatist and Islamic violence escalate at an alarming pace. This trend is not limited to Dagestan but is seen across the entire North Caucasus region, including North Ossetia, Ingushetia and Chechnya. All in all the North Caucasus is becoming an increasing headache for Russia’s leadership. There is also the added risk of “spillage” into the South Caucasus, which already has its fair share of problems. This is good reason for why the international community should perhaps pay more attention to this region than it presently does.
Clearly Dagestan is not an easy place to rule. Since the fall of the Soviet Union, Dagestan’s authorities have been regarded as loyal by the Kremlin and as corrupt and incompetent by many elsewhere, with oil and caviar mafias reported to be flourishing. Kidnappings and violence are commonplace. Firearms are ubiquitous and assassinations are a regular event. The elite, formed during the time of the Communist Party, has not changed as much as in neighboring republics, and it is used to having carte blanche from Moscow to stabilize the situation, which it has failed to do because of the various clans with their own interests.
This has been further complicated by the complex situation created by a split among Muslims in Dagestan. Most Dagestanis are Sufi Muslims but are at odds with advocates of Salafi Islam. Therefore, the president of Dagestan cannot be an autocrat like Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov. He must be a mediator capable of handling this very complex setup. Unfortunately Dagestan’s latest president, Mukhu Aliyev, was too weak and not able to make many inroads into solving all the problems Dagestan faces, but it is hard to say if anyone could have done better, particularly given the lack of attention from Moscow. While Russia injects vast amounts of cash, it has little impact on the disputes.
With obscure political procedures, corruption, violence and high levels of unemployment (20 percent) and poverty as well as the black market making up around one-third of Dagestan’s economy, the country is hardly a desirable place to live. Violence has historically stemmed from ongoing conflicts between Dagestan’s major ethnic groups, but in more recent times there has been a surge in terrorist activity by Islamist militant groups which have forged ties with Chechen separatists in an effort to unite Muslims across the North Caucasus. Because of the high unemployment rates, it has become easier to recruit youths, and many young men have joined a hard core of Muslim militants to fight for independence as a result of poverty and widespread abuses by the security forces. There is also a considerable amount of political violence, with murders of politicians not uncommon. Additionally, there is a real “gangland” syndrome, with police, religious leaders and others regularly on the receiving end of attacks. While other Russian provinces have had their fair share of political violence, the attacks on religious leaders are unique to Dagestan. The same gangs have also blown up railway lines and attempted to destroy vital natural gas pipelines.
Russia is only just managing to hold on to the republic, with President Dmitry Medvedev’s selection of Magomedsalam Magomedov (the son of a former president) as the new president not well received. While it is clear Russia needs to take steps to increase stability (without resorting to aggression/military means), it is difficult to see how this can be achieved. But in recognition of the trouble brewing in the North Caucasus, Moscow has appointed a special envoy -- Alexander Khloponin -- who has been given the task of promoting economic development and will be responsible for the newly created North Caucasus federal district, which includes Dagestan, Ingushetia and Chechnya as well as Kabardino-Balkaria, Karachay-Cherkessia, North Ossetia and Stavropol. He would do well to wear a bulletproof vest when travelling around. And of course a key question will be whether he will be able to work with the leaderships of these volatile provinces -- while in Dagestan he may get an easier ride, in Chechnya it may be more difficult with the all-powerful President Kadyrov very resistant to outside interference. Dagestan is clearly a powder keg, and all sorts of fuses are now burning. Let’s hope it’s not too late to stop a catastrophic explosion.
