The official announcement about the election results is not expected to be made before March 18. However, it is already obvious that Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki will not be able to secure a majority to establish a single-party government. The breakdown of the seats in the Iraqi Parliament is expected to be as follows: Some 100-110 for the State of Law Coalition led by Maliki, 85-90 for al-Iraqiya led by Ayad Allawi, 70 for the Iraqi National Alliance of the Shiites, 60 for the Kurdish Alliance, 10 for the Unity Alliance of Iraq led by Interior Minister Jawad al-Bolani and 10 for the Iraqi Islamic Party.Nevertheless, the results of the votes cast abroad between March 5 and 7 have become clear. The total number of these votes was about 270,000. In 2005, this figure was 400,000, with a participation rate of 71 percent. Yet, given the corrupt practices during the 2005 election, it is very likely that the 2010 figures are more realistic. The breakdown of the votes cast abroad in 2010 is as follows: the US 27,754, Canada 12,428, the UK 17,873, Sweden 36,931, Germany 19,474, Austria 1,579, Netherlands 12,300, Denmark 9,328, U.A.E. 14,063, Syria 42,965, Jordan 24,717, Iran 23,554, Egypt 4,917, Lebanon 3,787, Australia 12,068, Turkey 6,308 (Ankara 1,603, İstanbul-Fatih 2,913, İstanbul-Mecidiyeköy 1,291 and İstanbul-Kadıköy 407).
A total of 636 election observers from 21 countries, the Arab League (70 observers), the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC) (40 observers) and the European Union (120 observers) watched the election of March 7. Iran was the only country that refused to send observers. The largest delegation of observers (106 people) came from the US. The US delegation, including some former senators, sent its observers to 26 spots around the country, including six spots in Baghdad. Being a country that had also sent observers during the 2009 election, Turkey ranked second after the US in terms of people observing the election with 46 election observers in 10 provinces -- Baghdad (10 people), Mosul (13), Arbil (5), Sulaimaniya (1), Kirkuk (4), Vasit (1), Meysan (1), Dohuk (1), Diyala (2) and Basra (7). Those other than US and Turkish observers generally tended to stay in Baghdad or Arbil due to security considerations. On the other hand, Turks and Americans managed to have access even to the remotest and most problematic regions and neighborhoods and conducted their duties seamlessly. France sent five observers -- three in Baghdad and two in Arbil -- and three senators, while Italy sent 14, the Czech Republic and Japan 12 each. Except for the US, Denmark and Turkey, the countries tended to select their observers from among their diplomats working in Iraq. Only Turkey and the Czech Republic sent observers to Kirkuk. I was the only civilian observer in Kirkuk.
Speaking to the election observers at Hotel Al-Rasheed in Baghdad on the evening on March 9, Maliki implied that they would eventually set up the government. He was considerably relaxed in his speech and attitudes. A widely shared fear in Iraq is: “If Maliki stays in power as a prime minister for another term, he will stay there forever. The country may shift toward dictatorship before democracy becomes institutionalized.” For this reason, political parties are trying to prevent Maliki from remaining while allowing the State of Law Coalition to be part of a coalition so that someone other than Maliki can become prime minister. However, it appears that Maliki is determined to remain prime minister at all costs. And he is open to all coalition and cooperation options based on his prime ministry. The fact that he exerts control over the military, the intelligence and the bureaucracy is making Maliki all the more powerful. A very hot month awaits political bargaining in Iraq.
