The decision by the committee to send the Armenian genocide bill to Congress is a result of a long-standing campaign to define the killings of Armenians during World War I as “genocide.” Twenty-three members of the committee who voted “yes” on March 4 clearly see the events of 1915 and 1916 as “genocide,” but it is not clear where they derive their authority when, in fact, historians and scholars are divided over the precise nature of the events that took place in the final years of the Ottoman Empire.The killing of thousands of Armenians, who were also Ottoman subjects and had shared a long and largely peaceful history with Muslim Turks, is tragic to say the least. One should also mention the killing of thousands of Turks and Muslims in the same period. Many Turks now accept that what happened was a tragedy. But as Norman Stone points out (“Bad things happen when empires fall apart,” Times Online, March 8, 2010), this cannot be called genocide “if by that you mean the sort of thing Hitler did.” Apparently, some US politicians have become master historians without anybody noticing.
The timing of the vote was particularly bad because it came in the middle of a stalemate in implementing the protocols signed by Turkey and Armenia to normalize bilateral relations. This is a classic case of where in the US the lobbying power of small interest groups can trample history. Stephen Kinzer is right in saying, “This vote was a triumph of emotion, a victory for ethnic lobbying, and another example of the age-old American impulse to play moral arbiter for the world.” (“Genocide vote harms US-Turkey ties,” The Guardian, March 5, 2010.)
This decision will not only hurt US-Turkish relations but also further derail the process of normalization in the Caucasus. Why? Because Turkey expected (and still hopes for) three things from the protocols: normalization of relations between Turkey and Armenia and between Armenia and Azerbaijan and therefore the resolution of the Karabakh issue and the establishment of a committee of historians to look into the events of 1915-1916. The last provision is of particular importance because if Turkish-Armenian relations are to normalize, the genocide bill issue cannot come up year after year. Unfortunately, it looks like the Armenian diaspora will not give up on the genocide saga even if Turkey signs the protocols and opens its borders with Armenia.
What is more troubling is the damage US-Turkish relations under Obama have sustained from this vote and the lack of strong leadership expected from the Obama administration. As much as I would like to minimize the issue, it is big in Turkey. Turks feel hurt, betrayed, used. Obama’s first trip to Turkey, his “model partnership” discourse, his overtures to Turkey… All of it may well go down the drain. As Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu put it, this is a result of a lack of “strategic vision,” a vision that everyone in Turkey expected from President Obama. (Remember, even Bush did not allow it to happen.) The decision by the Turkish government to withdraw and “host” its ambassador to the US for “some time” in Ankara shows the extent of the damage.
The Obama administration still has a chance to correct this. In fact, there is a bigger change before all of the players now, and it is to resolve the Karabakh issue, the only issue that has blocked the entire process of normalization since October 2009. Americans, Russians and the French, the three members of the Minsk Group, should have an urgent meeting with a serious agenda to get things moving in the Caucasus. It is not impossible.
If they can come up with a plan that will make Armenia, Azerbaijan and Turkey happy, Turks will be the first to put the House bill behind them.
