Impressions on Iraqi general elections from Baghdad and Kirkuk (2)

Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki -- i.e., the State of Law Coalition -- is the winning politician in 9 out of 18 provinces. The breakdown of the seats in the Iraqi parliament is expected to be as follows: 90-100 for the State of Law Coalition, 80-85 for al-Iraqiya, 70 for the Iraqi National Alliance of the Shiites, 60 for the Kurdish Alliance, 10 for the Union of Iraq Alliance led by Interior Minister Jawad al-Bolani, and 10 for the Iraqi Islamic Party. Maliki secured 70 percent of the votes in Sadr City, the Shiite-dominated neighborhood of Baghdad, and this success is attributed to former Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari. The National Reform Movement, the party led by al-Jaafari, who is also the prime minister candidate of the Iraqi National Alliance, is within the Iraqi National Alliance. When al-Jaafari was the prime minister, Maliki was the deputy prime minister.

Maliki is in the lead in all Shiite-dominated southern provinces except one (Najaf). In Karbala, the Iraqi National Alliance is the winner. Iyad Allawi and his al-Iraqiya did not pay much attention to the southern provinces and did not pay visit to them even as part of the election campaign, the Shiite Arabs in the southern provinces tended to vote for Maliki in order not to lose the political and economic benefits of the power. It seems that Allawi secure 25 percent of the votes in Baghdad while Maliki obtained 23 percent and the Iraqi National Alliance 17 percent. Al-Iraqiya received 70 percent of the votes in Mosul, Diyala and Salahaddin. In the Kurdish local government -- Dohuk, Sulaimaniya, Arbil-- the Kurdish Alliance -- the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK)-- secured 30 percent of the votes while the Goran (Change) Party obtained 27 percent. Thus, this election indicates a big success for the Goran, but the beginning of the end for Jalal Talabani and the PUK. Having mobilized the Kurdish youth, intellectuals and poor people, the Goran has emerged as a new leader of the Kurdish political movement. In Kirkuk, Kurds are the obvious winners. The Kurdish local government had carried voters in buses to Kirkuk, where new neighborhoods were created for the arriving Kurdish villagers. Thus, the Kurdish policy of Kurdizing Kirkuk and confirming this in the election finally bore fruits in the March 7 elections. Kurds have made it their national policy to include all northern provinces, particularly including Kirkuk, and, to systematically transfer Kurdish population to northern provinces in this context, and they are too bold to exert psychological, political and economic pressures on other ethnicities. This attitude by Kurds foments rising nationalism in Iraq, which, in the long run, endangers what Kurds gained since 2003.

Despite the Kurds’ election victory in Kirkuk, a psychological and political center for Iraqi Turkmen, there is another winner: Turkmen. Compared to one seat they secured in the local elections in 2005, it seems, they will obtain seven or eight seats in this election. Moreover, with the election of women representatives of Turkmen, the Turkmen politics is very likely to see a positive change.

It appears that Maliki is determined to remain as the prime minister at all costs. He exerts control over the military, the intelligence and the bureaucracy. It is said that Maliki offered to make Tariq al-Hashimi President. Most probably, Maliki will form a coalition with the Iraqi National Alliance of the Shiites. But, he will not include only Sadr’s group, al-Ahrar, from the Iraqi National Alliance. He will form the coalition with other coalition partners particularly with the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (SIIC). If he fails to secure the majority in Parliament, he will also include the Kurdish Alliance. Sunni-dominated al-Iraqiya will be kept out of the coalition, which will incite great reactions from Sunni Arabs, and may cause violence to rule in Iraq for many years to come. However, he plans to cool of Sunni reactions by making al-Hashimi, a Sunni Arab, President and giving the control of the military and the intelligence to Sunnis and advocating the unity of Iraq and reinforcing nationalism and security.