Turkey immediately launched an aggressive campaign, pointing the finger at US President Barack Obama and making all sorts of threats. Within the first 24 hours, Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu warned of a realignment of Turkish policy, accused Washington of a lack of strategic vision and of not wanting the Turkey-Armenia rapprochement to succeed and pulled Turkey’s ambassador out of Washington for “consultations.” While to many it may seem that Turkey is punching above its weight, at the same time, one cannot underestimate the importance of Turkey for the US in its foreign policy given that four problems out of five on the US government’s agenda are related to Turkey: the withdrawal of American troops from Iraq, Iran’s nuclear program, the AfPak issue, energy security and the turbulent Caucasus region. Therefore Turkey feels quite unconcerned about its “bully boy” approach toward the world’s only superpower.Obama now finds himself in a rather uncomfortable position. Prior to his election, he promised Armenians that he would recognize the genocide, but once in office realities had to be faced. His need for a strong relationship with Turkey outweighed this promise, and it seemed he wanted it to disappear. So it is hardly surprising that during his visit to Turkey in 2009, while he made it clear he had not changed his mind on the 1915 events, he also threw his weight behind Turkey’s normalization process with Armenia in the belief that success would offer a way out from this genocidal cul-de-sac. As we know, the best laid plans frequently go awry, and this one has certainly gone off course. Unfortunately, now that the normalization process seems to be on the rocks, “the g-word” has come back to haunt Obama. Turkey has deviated from the original framework of the agreement. Within a couple of days of signing the protocols in October 2009, Turkey’s leadership began openly linking ratification to the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. There is no doubt that the US supports the peace process between Turkey and Armenia, but the big powers, the US and Russia, have been clear from the beginning: The two processes are separate, and they are not going to start pressuring Armenia to withdraw its forces from Azerbaijani provinces. In fact, Turkey’s approach is not only holding back the rapprochement, but it is also having a negative effect on the Karabakh peace talks, as Armenia does not want to be seen as doing anything that could be viewed as making concessions on Karabakh in order to have its border opened with Turkey.
In addition, Turkey has shot itself in the foot by shouting so loudly over the decision of the Armenian Constitutional Court. The US did not support Turkey in its complaints, but instead, Assistant Secretary for European and Eurasian Affairs Philip Gordon stated that the US did not see it as an obstacle to progress. Turkey has overreacted to the court decision, making it even more difficult to move ahead and making it look like Turkey is scratching around for any old excuse not to ratify. This is all very bad for Turkey’s credibility.
The weeks leading up to April 24 will be full of tension and drama. However, even though the committee has adopted the resolution, it is very unlikely that it will be brought to the House floor, as was the case in the past. Because the US badly needs Turkey on a whole host of issues, the US cannot afford to alienate such a strong ally. Therefore Obama, Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden will pull out all the stops -- but they will not do it for free, no matter what threats pour in from Ankara. Turkey will need to deliver something in return -- as has been the case in other years. There is always some sort of trade off. The US may ask Turkey to support it in the UN Security Council on Iran and continue to insist that Turkey move ahead on the ratification of the protocols in the Turkish Parliament -- one way or another. If Turkey does not move, Yerevan may decide to move first and ratify first, which would leave Turkey in an even more difficult position.
And what about Azerbaijan in all of this? While I have sympathy for Azerbaijan, I also strongly believe that Ankara should move ahead and ratify. Further damaging the relationship between Turkey and Armenia is in no way useful to Baku, contrary to what they may say. While Turkey and Armenia are talking and engaged, it gives Turkey a voice and a foot in the door. The alternative means the slamming of the door, and Azerbaijan will be left alone on Karabakh again. Building trust between Turks and Armenians should in the long term help Armenians feel safer and less isolated, which could have a positive impact on their relations with Azerbaijan and the peace talks. It’s time to be brave and do the right thing and move to a future beyond the past.
