Indeed, Russia has succeeded in moving around the furniture in Georgia’s house, and its influence in Abkhazia is now considerable. According to the International Crisis Group, Abkhazia is now less independent than before Russian recognition. At the rate things are going, Abkhazia could be little more than a Russian province very soon. Russia is currently financing half the region’s budget and is spending $465 million on refurbishing existing and building new military installations. Almost the entire population holds a Russian passport, although it would be rather unrealistic to expect the Abkhaz to travel on Georgian passports, even a special category, as Tbilisi continues to insist. And not surprisingly, 95 percent of Abkhazia’s trade is with Russia. During 2009 Moscow and Sukhumi negotiated over 30 bilateral agreements.Moscow’s increasing stranglehold is starting to cause concern among some Abkhaz politicians and others. While the international community continues to state that Russia made a grave mistake recognizing Abkhazia, Kremlin would not agree. They managed to put an end to Georgia’s NATO aspirations, get their paws on important strategic assets, branch out further into the Black Sea and increase their military presence in the South Caucasus. The management of Abkhazia’s railways and Sukhumi airport has been signed over to Russia for 10 years in exchange for loans and investments, and Russia also has oil exploration rights in the Black Sea for the next five years. Abkhaz leader Sergei Bagapsh has also talked of allowing Russians the right to purchase land, which could lead to a quick transfer of Abkhazia’s beautiful coastline to rich Russians, including the potentially big money-spinning tourism sector. The opposition has accused Bagapsh of selling Abkhaz sovereignty for its own economic gain and complained bitterly about decisions made undemocratic ally, including the May 2009 border protection agreement which resulted in 800 Russians soldiers having the exclusive right of guarding Abkhazia’s borders without the agreement being submitted to Parliament for discussion or vote.
In the West, it’s business as usual with Moscow. While the Russians continue to fail to fully implement the terms of the 2008 French-brokered cease-fire agreements, which oblige Russia to reduce troop levels to those mandated before Aug. 8, 2008 and withdraw from previously unoccupied areas, the EU, and in particular the plan broker Nicolas Sarkozy has more important things on his mind. With Russian President Dmitry Medvedev visiting Paris earlier this week, accompanied by a massive entourage of oligarchs, France is far too busy building up a new French-Russian strategic partnership to care about Georgia. President Sarkozy is keen to play catch up with his German counterpart when it comes to relations with Moscow. He wants to profit from opportunities in the Russian markets and not allow it to be dominated by the Germans, and a number of business agreements are expected to be reached. Therefore, Russia’s relations with Georgia will not figure very highly. So while Russia has forged ahead with great haste to integrate itself into every crevice of Abkhazia, the international community has failed to adopt any sort of concrete policy other than to say it supports the territorial integrity of Georgia. While the West is quite right to refuse to accept Russia’s recognition, it needs to be more proactive and not just toe the Georgian line. They should try to find a way to engage with Abkhazia’s leadership, even if this means upsetting those in Tbilisi. If they do not, Abkhazia will have little choice but to further embrace Russia. Restoring Georgia’s territorial integrity will be an uphill battle at the very best and may even prove impossible, particularly bearing in mind that since independence, Abkhazia has never really been an integral part of Georgia. Indeed, in 1991, Abkhazia voted to remain part of the Soviet Union. However, aspirations of independence are rather unrealistic too. The expulsion of almost 300,000 ethnic Georgians from Abkhazia means that independence is tied to ethnic cleansing.
Until now the West seems to believe that patience is the key and that if Tbilisi can show Georgia to be a democratic, prosperous and peaceful place, the Abkhaz will eventually want to be part of that. This seems rather naive. Presently the Abkhaz view Georgia as a source of aggression and instability, with Tbilisi going to great lengths to prevent Abkhazia from diversifying its economy. For example, it placed an embargo on Turkish commerce to Abkhaz ports in 2009. Turkey, with its large Abkhaz minority, is actually a natural partner, and the international community should try to facilitate such cooperation.
In short the international community should rethink its isolationist policy towards Abkhazia before it’s too late and the region is totally absorbed into Russia, which is in nobody’s interests. Georgia will learn to live with it. After all, they have nowhere else to turn.
