The arrests are related to an alleged coup plot known as Sledgehammer, revealed by a liberal newspaper, Taraf, last month. According to testimony in 5,000 pages of military documents, the plan -- dating from 2003 -- envisaged a putsch against the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) after a campaign of destabilization involving bombing mosques and provoking a war with Greece. The army has denied that the documents represented a coup plot and instead described them as a “scenario.”After the detention, Chief of General Staff Gen. İlker Başbuğ met with Deputy Prime Minister Cemil Çiçek and called a high-ranking meeting with the top 15 generals to lay out the military’s strategy. In an official statement posted on the Turkish military’s Web site, it was underlined that the top military generals gathered to discuss the very serious issue related to the court investigation in İstanbul.
As the Guardian highlights, some critics depict the detentions as part of a witch hunt by the AK Party aimed at politicizing the judiciary, undermining the military and weakening the secular Constitution handed down by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, the founder of modern Turkey.
Now political observers in Turkey think that there is a possibility the chief of general staff will resign. Gareth Jenkins, an İstanbul-based specialist on Turkish military affairs, told the Guardian the arrests could trigger a major crisis. “The prosecutors have four days to turn these detentions into formal arrests, and if they do that, there is no way the army will sit back and not respond,” he said. “This is a power struggle between two authoritarian forces. The agenda behind Ergenekon is to reduce the power of the military.”
Yet Turkish political observers, from pro-state to liberal, do not think that Gen. Başbuğ, himself or with other generals, would want to resign from his post. Given that Jenkins is one of the few observers that have good connections with the military and civilian sources, we need to take Jenkins’ argument seriously.
It appears that the Turkish observers who think that Gen. Başbuğ’s resignation is not possible base their analyses on two assumptions. First, such a resignation could create a major political crisis, and the generals would not want to see Turkey in a political crisis. Therefore, no matter what they would not want to resign. Second, such resignations would give the wrong impression to the young military officers about their leaders, who may be perceived as incapable generals who could not find a medium to manage the crisis.
In fact both arguments have valid points to consider; however, such arguments lack the background analysis and the situation in which Gen. Başbuğ is serving his term. One needs to keep in mind that Gen. Başbuğ came to power as the follower of two controversial generals, former Chiefs of General Staff Gen. Hilmi Özkök and Gen. Yaşar Büyükanıt. The former was criticized by the secularist segments of society for his close relations with the AK Party government. The later was criticized by both conservative segments of society for his involvement in civilian politics in the presidential election process and secularist segments of society for his flip-flopping in his relations with the government. After the two controversial generals, Gen. Başbuğ became the chief of general staff that pursued a delicately balanced strategy: not too close and not too distant relations with the civilian government. Yet the developments forced Başbuğ to reconsider his relations with the government. During his last six months in office, one of Başbuğ’s priorities is to not be in the position of Gen. Büyükanıt, who is liked by neither side of society. Therefore, it is likely that Başbuğ will increase the level of confrontation with the government. The resignation card, either as a political bluff or as a real option, can be used as well.
