Arınç later changed his statement so as to clarify where he stands on that option. In an interview with CNN Turk, he revealed the latest opinion polls and sharply challenged the opposition, predicting yet another victory, whenever the elections are to be held.The Pollmark survey which Arınç referred to shows the AK Party at around 39-40 percent. In the volatile and turbulent political climate of Turkey, this should not raise eyebrows, because it must be reasonably assumed that the public, silent as it may seem, follow developments attentively. Some surveys show a powerful rise among the decided, but so far a shift to another party has not seemed to occur.
At the moment, in the nearly deadlocked politics, the AK Party leadership is closer to the idea of taking partial amendments on the Constitution than early elections. As the change that shortens to 60 days the time between a parliamentary vote on a referendum and the referendum itself is soon to be printed by the Official Gazette, the thinking seems to be, to “move” any time around mid-March and go to a referendum on, for example, amendments regarding party closures and the structural reform of the high judiciary in May. Erdoğan’s latest statements in Madrid also signal a warming to that path.
If seriously approached, this might be the greatest gamble the AK Party will take. The vote for the referendum must be between 330 and 367 in order for the president to ratify a referendum. The AK Party’s number of deputies is 336 -- signaling a highly sensitive vote, not only because the AK Party may not fully count on the Kurdish deputies of the Peace and Democracy Party (BDP), but it would also be an arduous, risky task to mobilize the entire AK deputy corps. The second part of the risk is that the vote within Parliament will be by closed vote, meaning there would be defections to the other side.
Nevertheless, it seems to be the only way to retake control over the political decision --making and reforming processes -- if the AK Party leadership aims to achieve some success before going in to elections. Erdoğan and Arınç may seem confident, but if the referendum project somehow backfires, this may add a serious blow to the future of the party.
If he meant what he said, by being willing to declare early elections, Arınç may be on the right track in his mind. Objectively analyzed, there seems to be the need for a refreshed vote of confidence for the government on international and domestic issues. The “zero problems with neighbors” policy is stuck on the Armenian part, and Cyprus stands as another issue needing a bold move ahead. Internally, the need for a new constitution and judiciary reform, as well as the Kurdish initiative came to a halt because of the block of alliance between the main opposition and the high judiciary. The more paralyzed the AK Party becomes in Parliament, the more votes it may lose.
Together, these challenges threaten the efficiency of the ruling party, with high risks of radicalization and sharper polarity on the political scene. The Republican People’s Party (CHP) and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) may be bluffing when they repeatedly call for early elections, because both of them know that they do not constitute credible alternatives in the eyes of the voters. They call for early elections probably because they have nothing else to offer.
Yet, this alternative may also have its risks. Although the AK Party is highly mobile and swift when it comes to preparing itself for a new vote, the nomination of the new deputies bear the danger that its structures may start displaying cracks
