Gen. Koşaner is to become the next chief of general staff in August, for three years instead of four due to the retirement age. He will replace Gen. Başbuğ, who has served for two years as chief of general staff since he has to retire this year. When Gen. Başbuğ took office from Gen. Yaşar Büyükanıt in August 2008, Turkey was again going through turmoil and the debate at the time focused on the disclosure of coup plots to unseat the government as an İstanbul court had begun trying over 200 people, including retired generals as well as active duty officers. The suspects were accused of triggering armed incitement to unseat the government, allegedly having created an illegal ultranationalist organization named Ergenekon to reach that goal.
Under Gen. Başbuğ, Turkey was also trying to recover from the April 27, 2007 late night e-memorandum posted by the Turkish General Staff on its Web site. The general elections held soon after the e-memorandum resulted in a clear victory for the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) for the second time since the November 2002 elections. People thus reacted sharply against the e-memo at ballot boxes. It was a slap on the face of the military commandership of the time.
But ongoing investigations and trials as well as the disclosures of several other coup plots by the liberal Taraf daily have proven that the military, which has staged five different kinds of coups since 1960, has not lost its appetite for military takeovers.
Under Gen. Başbuğ, Turkey has witnessed the disclosures of coup plots such as the “Action Plan to Fight Reactionaryism,” the “Cage Plan” and lately “Sledgehammer,” allegedly the bloodiest-ever coup plot. Instead of pursuing a policy of clarifying those allegations while giving a message to the public that the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) is determined to remove those involved in illegal activities from within the institution, Gen. Başbuğ has preferred to defend the TSK while using a threatening tone.
At the time of writing this column, several retired top commanders, including retired Air Force Commander Gen. İbrahim Fırtına as well as retired admiral and former Navy Forces Commander Özden Örnek, whose diaries have revealed several failed coup plots, were taken to the police counterterrorism units in İstanbul and Ankara for interrogation as part of an investigation into the Sledgehammer coup plot.
This latest development has fueled uncertainty in the political climate. The existing uncertainty has also been making it difficult to envisage whether Gen. Koşaner will become the next chief of general staff or whether Gen. Başbuğ’s term of office will be extended forcefully. I use the word forcefully because some uniformed men are sending veiled messages to some influential circles, mainly in the US, that if Washington continues to support the ruling party, a coup may be on the horizon and that Gen. Başbuğ may continue in his post. Such messages are also interpreted as subtle threats to the US not to support the AK Party. It is not true that Washington has been specifically supporting the ruling party, but it acts in line with the normal procedure of working with a government in power. The TSK, however, perceives the current US policies as support for the ruling party.
Former Turkish Chief of General Staff Gen. Hilmi Özkök, whose stay in office coincided with the AK Party’s first election victory, faced serious pressure from his generals to stage a military coup. It was later understood, mainly from retired Gen. Özkök’s revelations that this former top general played a critical role in preventing a military takeover.
Though Gen. Başbuğ has failed to take a firm stand against those officers from within the TSK allegedly involved in coup plans by discharging them from the military, he is, however, also understood to have prevented any coups from being staged by his officers.
Informed circles in Turkey are not sure whether Gen. Koşaner, once and if he replaces Gen. Başbuğ, will have the strength to say “no” to his men looking for a coup. According to them, “Başbuğ has at least stopped military coups, but we are concerned about Gen. Koşaner concerning his ability to prevent any such takeovers.”
The latest wave of detentions and interrogations of some top retired generals, however, can render even a short-term analysis, such as the TSK under Gen. Koşaner, irrelevant.
