The package, initiated by the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) government, included changes to the terms of the president and deputies, shortening parliamentary terms from five years to four and reducing the presidential tenure from seven years to five. Presidents will also be able to run for a second term in office.The bill stipulated that after Gül, the presidential tenure would be shortened to five years and that the president should be able to run for a second term in office. The bill triggered a heated debate among legal experts, with many claiming that the law should not treat Gül’s presidential term separately. It is argued that his tenure should be shortened to five years and that he should be able to run for a second term in office. A lack of legislation on the issue gives rise to frequent debates on the period of time the president and Parliament will serve, but Parliament has so far failed to take concrete steps to this end.
According to Radikal’s İsmet Berkan, if Parliament does not take the initiative and does nothing regarding Gül’s term in office with an amendment to the Constitution, the Supreme Election Board (YSK) will make the decision regarding Gül’s tenure. “No matter what we say on the issue, with some saying Gül’s term is five years while others saying it is seven, this is of no importance. The important thing is what the YSK says when the time comes.” In the wake of this, Berkan finds stirring up a political debate over Gül’s tenure a meaningless attempt because the YSK will have the final word on the issue.
In his view, the frequent debates on Gül’s term in office may be a debate between President Gül and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, although no one makes any mention of this. “What is alleged is that perhaps Erdoğan wants to run for the presidency in 2012, so he sees a five-year term as appropriate for the current president. I do not agree with this allegation. Politics has facts, and Erdoğan is a realistic politician as far as I can see. So it is out of the question for Erdoğan to think about the presidency. What he has in mind can only be his party coming to power alone in the 2011 general elections, which is not an easy thing,” explains Berkan, noting that it is not right to make predictions about the presidential election without seeing the results of the 2011 elections.
He suggests that if the AK Party’s votes drop to 30 percent in 2011, Erdoğan will not run for the presidency despite having had the intention to do so. Instead, he will encourage Gül to run for the position again.
Akşam’s İsmail Küçükkaya also thinks the results of the 2011 general elections will influence the course of the next presidential election and that either Gül or Erdoğan will run for the presidency. About the prospects of a conflict between Gül and Erdoğan, Küçükkaya says he does not see it as likely and that they will not make a final decision without seeing the results of the general elections. “Anyone who wants their candidate to win the presidency should aim for a parliamentary majority,” Küçükkaya suggests.
