However, with the Armenian Constitutional Court’s decision concerning the protocols signed between the two countries in Zurich, the normalization process hit an obstacle. Ankara claims that the court’s decision prejudiced the protocols, and in this context, Foreign Ministry Undersecretary Ambassador Feridun Sinirlioğlu went to Switzerland and the United States.The expectations of the Euro-Atlantic world and the Russian Federation are very clear: Ankara should establish diplomatic relations with Armenia and open the common borders (the Alican highway border crossing and the Akyaka railway border crossing) without voicing prerequisites about the Nagorno-Karabakh issue and without paying much attention to the Armenian Constitutional Court’s decision, and the normalization process should start before April 24. Why is there this haste on the part of the Euro-Atlantic world and the Russian Federation? Can it be because of the West’s efforts to give relief to Georgia, which had grown extremely isolated in the South Caucasus after the war in August 2008? Can it be that a button has been pressed to pull Armenia toward the Euro-Atlantic world? The Euro-Atlantic world is determined to develop relations with Armenia, which is the other Christian country after Georgia in the South Caucasus, and make this country a full member of NATO and the EU in the long run. The Kremlin, on the other hand, seeks to establish a transportation route to Armenia via Turkey since Armenia has no common border with Russia because of Georgia.
However, it is not very likely Turkey will offend Azerbaijan, about 20 percent of whose lands are occupied by Armenia, in connection with the Karabakh issue. Also, ahead of the parliamentary elections which are expected to be held in 2011, Turkish political parties can reasonably be expected to take into consideration the Turkish general public’s perceptions about the matter. Under these conditions, how can Yerevan make positive contributions to the normalization between the two countries if it continue to keep the genocide allegations high on the agenda and refuses to recognize the common border between Turkey and Armenia?
Is Yerevan really eager to effect normalization? Or is it trying to put Ankara to a great deal of trouble by laying out a new card that it cannot accept?
The primary obstacle to the normalization of relations between Turkey and Armenia is the Armenian diaspora. This diaspora is experiencing the difficulty of living in Christian countries without being assimilated. Using hostility against Turkey as a factor strengthening their Armenian identity, the diaspora perceives normalization as a threat to this identity. The second obstacle is the existence of Karabakh Armenians who are ready to be organized in clandestine networks to conduct an armed struggle against any attempt at peace. Serzh Sarksyan is afraid of being assassinated if normalization really takes place. Moreover, the Armenian bureaucrats who formed a class under the legacy of the Soviet era represent another major obstacle to normalization. These ruling bureaucrats are worried about Turkey’s gradual introduction of democracy to Armenia.
Armenian intellectuals are desirous of the integration of Armenia with the West. They want to see Armenia’s transition from the presidential system, inherited from the Soviet Union, to parliamentary democracy, and the institutionalization of a system of democracy characterized by respect for human rights and a free market regime. The fact that the Russian Federation still serves as the sounding board of Armenia and Russians have great shareholdings in major industrial corporations and the Russian army continues to be present in the country is a serious concern for Armenian intellectuals. For them, Armenia can integrate with the West and democratize further only if it can establish normal relations with democratic Turkey.
As a result, the normalization of relations between Turkey and Armenia is not an economic, but a political project. It aims to ensure Armenia’s democratization and integration with the West. This political project can only be implemented by Armenian intellectuals.
