In appears that the PKK has been formulating a complex strategy that requires double-sided policies. On the one hand, Abdullah Öcalan has ordered the Peace and Democracy Party (BDP) “not to advocate for the PKK,” noting that “the PKK has its own channels to say whatever it wants to say.” This is a new approach for the PKK. It must be related to European Union diplomats’ demand that the Democratic Society Party (DTP) maintain its distance from the PKK, a demand that was rejected by Öcalan and party leaders before the DTP was closed down. With the BDP, Öcalan seems be at a point where he wishes to cooperate with the EU, so he has ordered the BDP to distance itself from the PKK. In parallel with Öcalan’s demand, BDP Chairman Selahattin Demirtaş outlined his party’s relations with the PKK, saying, “We will not be the voice of the PKK.” During another interview, Demirtaş thanked Öcalan for letting his party develop its own policies separate from the PKK.Based on this information, one can assume that the pro-Öcalan Kurds are pursuing a double-sided strategy. The BDP, of course, under the direction of Öcalan, is pursuing policies more independent of the PKK.
The PKK, on the other hand, plans to pursue its own policies through a more violent terror campaign. In an interview, Cemil Bayık revealed the PKK’s 2010 strategy to remove the Justice and Development Party (AKP) from the Kurdish region. According to Bayık, the Turkish state thinks the AKP is the last resort for it to establish relations with Kurdish communities. If the PKK removes the AKP from the region, Bayık thinks, the Turkish state will have no choice but to sit down with the PKK and negotiate peace.
Unlike its traditional strategy, the PKK this time will use proxies to terrorize society. The Kurdistan Freedom Falcons (TAK), an offshoot PKK organization that terrorized the country, especially tourist destinations and metropolises, in 2006 and 2007, will be the proxy organization for the PKK in 2010. The reason why I underline the TAK’s role is because this mysterious organization has recently issued a declaration threatening to resume its intense terror campaign in 2010.
The TAK, in its declaration, threatens to target AKP, Republican People’s Party (CHP) and Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) offices in the Southeast. In addition, the TAK threatens to terrorize military and civilian targets that help the existence of the state system. That means the TAK threatens to attack economic targets. In the declaration, the TAK openly warns tourists not to come to Turkey.
In addition, pro-PKK media outlets list the institutions and the businesses that have close relations with the Gülen movement and other religious movements in the region. For instance, in a recent report, the pro-PKK Firat News Agency reported a list of pro-Gülen business and institutions in the town of Doğubeyazıt in Ağrı. It can be inferred that the PKK will target the Gülen movement in the Southeast as well.
The TAK, in its declaration, accuses the PKK of being passive and not intensifying its violent campaign. Such rhetoric in the TAK declaration gives us incentive to believe that the PKK will maintain its one-sided cease-fire in early 2010 if the TAK successfully intensifies the terror campaign on behalf of the PKK.
In this case, the PKK calculates that the government will see that the PKK could be a reasonable organization to negotiate with. If not, the government could potentially face more radical organizations like the TAK.
From the statement, it appears that the TAK will resume its terror campaign as of Feb. 15 if the police fail to take preventive measures. The government is planning to invite singers, artists and writers to a meeting with the prime minister and Beşir Atalay, the minister coordinating the initiative, on Feb. 22.
Time will show us whether the TAK will ruin the government’s plans to reach out to a larger segments of society. We can be sure of one thing, however: the year 2010 will not be easy for either the government or the PKK.
