During the 2004 presidential elections, Yanukovich was labeled a cheat and a fraud when his victory -- which was pushed by the men in the Kremlin -- was declared fraudulent and unfair. Tymoshenko was at that time at the heart of the famous Orange Revolution, which brought the somewhat bohemian Viktor Yuschenko to power. However, their friendship was short lived, and within a few months, they began a campaign of backstabbing which has continued for much of the past five years. Ukraine has staggered from one political crisis to another; government after government has collapsed; the parliament has been blocked for months at a time; vital reforms have been frozen; the country’s leadership and opposition have spent most of their time arguing between themselves and the remainder of the time quarrelling with the Kremlin. There have been punch ups in the Rada, numerous resignations and dismissals, a catastrophic economic meltdown and at least two gas crises. However, even with all this, the positives of the Orange Revolution should not be forgotten. It brought increased democracy and free and fair elections to Ukraine -- the smooth running of the first round of these presidential elections is proof of that. Indeed Ukraine has become something of an expert on elections having had quite a few over the past five years! Let us hope that this record will not be brought to an end on Sunday and that neither Tymoshenko or Yanukovich will return to the days of the past and attempt to cheat one way or another. However, with votes being sold on various Web sites, this is not guaranteed. And let us also hope that whoever the eventual loser is, they will accept it with dignity and not drag the process to the courts in an attempt to blacken the other and bring about a re-run. Again this is not an impossible outcome. Ukraine is after all predictably unpredictable.So while outgoing president, Yuschenko, will retreat to his house in the country and his bees, Ukraine will be left with one of these two “personalities.” Unfortunately, neither is really any good for Ukraine. Over the years, they have both proven themselves to be self-centered, power hungry, money oriented and corrupt. Yanukovich is still viewed as a Kremlin man by many in the West, and after a number of intimate dealings with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, Tymoshenko is also increasingly seen as being cozy with the Kremlin no matter how hard she continues to push her “I want Ukraine in the European Union” agenda. For the Russians, either option is a pretty good deal. They got they wanted -- Yuschenko and his “fast track” Euro-Atlantic ambitions out of office.
On paper, their policies look quite similar: both Tymoshenko and Yanukovich have promised to pursue Ukraine’s integration with the EU while maintaining good relations with Russia. However, while the EU (or at least some member states) keep up their “Russia first” policy, becoming a candidate for membership is not around the corner, unless of course the EU decides to change its policy or the Russians decide to change theirs. Both have also pledged to work with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which is supervising Ukraine’s recession-hit economy. Both have made restoring political stability and confidence in the economy and resuming cooperation with the IMF, which has suspended a $16.4 billion package, a priority.
The problem with Ukraine’s politicians is that they are good at making promises but actually pretty bad at delivery. Of course, their styles are different: Tymoshenko relies on her charisma and good looks while Yanukovich on the strong support he gets from business. However, there is no doubt that Tymoshenko is an unreliable populist who has hardly delivered anything tangible to Ukraine after all her years in power. Opponents of Yanukovich view him as being too much under the thumb of Ukraine’s business oligarchs and not interested in “draining the corruption swamp” that has for many years been so profitable for these oligarchs and the politicians they are linked to. At the end of the day, it is a pretty desperate choice for Ukrainians to make. Neither is trustworthy nor honest, and both are tainted with a dodgy past. Can either really deliver something good for Ukraine? Are they capable of bringing an end to the political stalemate, or will it be more of the same? One thing is for sure, Ukraine cannot afford to lose another five years -- it is time for the politicians to start putting the country, instead of themselves, first.
