These new economic sanctions especially target Iran’s oil trade. Although Iran possesses the second largest oil reserves in the world, it has serious production and refining problems. Iran’s current infrastructure is not capable of increasing production, and because problems with their refining facilities, Iran must export half of its extraction as crude oil and import fuel.The legislation aims at denying US loans and other financial assistance to non-Iranian firms that sell fuel to Iran and help expand this country’s oil refining capacities. These new measures were developed believing that considerably increasing fuel prices will exacerbate economic problems and, of course, social unrest. Even if US Secretary of State Hillary R. Clinton insists that they have no intention of punishing the Iranian people, it’s not hard to imagine that it is the people who will suffer the most.
As you may recall, similar sanctions were imposed against Saddam’s Iraq, and as a result, while the people’s misery increased, the regime’s authority remained intact. The foreign world expected for a long time to see domestic turmoil that would drive Saddam out of power, but in the end, they only witnessed Saddam eliminating all pro-Westerners in his country one by one. Of course, finally those who had imposed the sanctions chose to occupy this country, but this final part is definitely not on the agenda concerning Iran.
The US’s plan is to encourage the Iranian opposition movement by amplifying the economic crisis, hoping that the present social uneasiness turns into a tremendous political crisis and costs Mahmoud Ahmadinejad his presidential seat. Washington hopes that maybe then it will be possible to renegotiate the nuclear issue. Even if Ahmadinejad maintain the power, the US believes that he will be so weakened politically that he will have to accept a compromise.
However, Iran’s reaction to these sanctions is hard to predict because, above all, the Iranian people don’t give the impression of being totally convinced on the necessity of dropping the nuclear projects. Ordinary Iranians might even consider these sanctions some kind of declaration of war, and this may even help the government and the opposition form a common front against foreign enemies. On the other hand, it’s not possible to predict the effect or the direction of popular unrest, if it does arise. If this turmoil ignites a process during which Iranians kill each other, how will it be possible to claim that the sanctions were in the Iranian people’s best interests? Besides, even if there is a change of government in Tehran, who can guarantee that the new power will renounce a project that has almost become a symbol of national pride?
It’s worth reminding people that Iran is playing a dangerous game by exposing its military capacities and by using the nuclear issue as a manner of challenging the whole world. Nevertheless, sanctions may incite Iran to adopt a more intransigent line. That’s why new sanctions may not provide the expected results at the cost of making Iran more aggressive, especially if third countries don’t cooperate fully with the US. Perhaps “carrots” will be more useful than “sticks” this time.
