The survey, titled “Change of Direction in Turkish Foreign Policy and Perception of Relations with Neighbors,” revealed that 79.5 percent of the public supports the improvements in Turkey’s relations with neighboring countries and that 63 percent support the policies of the government with regard to Israel. The results of the survey had one puzzling item, though: Almost 40 percent of the Turkish public believes Turkey has no ally at all.The USAK survey shows that a majority of the Turkish public does not have any perception of an “axis shift” in Turkish foreign policy. Fifty-seven percent of the public believes that foreign policy continues in its traditional framework.
It is interesting to note an inconsistency in the responses of those surveyed about the West, and in particular about the EU. A full 58.25 percent of those surveyed regard themselves as “not antagonistic to the West.” A total of 12.7 percent feel “antagonistic” and 11.80 percent feel “partially antagonistic.” Those who have no position about the West comprise 17.25 percent. This suggests that the support rate for Turkey’s membership in the EU should be less than 58.25 percent, as one would expect only non-antagonists to support Turkey’s membership. But the rate of those who are “clearly for” Turkey’s membership is in fact lower: 48.40 percent support EU membership.
However, if we add to this “partially for” (28 percent), full and partial support for Turkey’s EU membership adds up to 76.4 percent. That is even higher than the sum of “non-antagonists” and “no position about the West” (75.5 percent). This suggests that even people who are partially antagonistic to the West support Turkey’s membership in the EU “partially or fully.” This paradoxical situation gets further complicated if we take into consideration that only 4.15 percent of the public regards EU countries or one of the EU countries (Great Britain, Germany and France) as Turkey’s ally. (A total of 7.7 percent regard NATO, 12.5 percent the US, 13 percent Bosnia and Herzegovina and 19.5 Azerbaijan as an ally of Turkey.)
A similar inconsistency reveals itself if we take into account that only 37 percent of the public regards the AK Party’s foreign policy as “nationalist.” A total of 19 percent say the AK Party is running an Europists foreign policy while 15 percent say it is Americanist. A full 11.75 percent regard the AK Party’s foreign policy as Islamist, 10.25 percent as Ottomanist and only 7 percent as liberal. This suggests that even those who regard the AK Party’s foreign policy as Europists or Americanist support its “zero problems with neighbors” policy. Those who regard the AK Party’s foreign policy as “nationalist, Islamist, Ottomanist or liberal” add up to 66 percent, whereas support for the improvement of relations with neighboring countries is 79.5 percent.
The apparent inconsistency continues when it comes to the public’s support for the improvement of relations with Syria and Iran. Only 14.40 percent of those surveyed do not suggest any improvement in Turkish-Syrian relations in any area, whereas 16 percent says the same for Turkish-Iranian relations. The bulk of the people suggests that relations should be improved, especially in trade and economy. But, if we suppose that those who foresee improvement in all areas also support improvement in military relations, we can conclude that 30 percent support improvement in Turkish-Syrian military relations and 32 percent in Turkish-Iranian military relations.
The apparent inconsistencies in the results of the survey suggest one clear observation: There is widespread support for the government’s foreign policy in almost all segments of society. Even those who regard themselves as anti-Western support the pro-EU membership policies of the government. Taking into consideration that the highest level of ballot box support the AK Party could receive in its history from the public was some 47 percent, we may say that the general public regards foreign policy a non-partisan issue and endorses the policies of the foreign minister, despite the fact that the minister is an AK Party member.
I think AK Party leaders should read the results of this survey carefully and start stressing the foreign policy initiatives of the government more in the public sphere instead of the Kurdish initiative and the Ergenekon case, which arouse mixed feelings among the public.
