That is why in more hawkish quarters of Israel, pre-emptive strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities are seriously being discussed. However, not everyone shares this opinion. This group advises restraint because they purport that Israel does not have the firepower to deliver a knockout blow to Iran’s nuclear facilities. Furthermore, they draw attention to fierce Iranian retaliation.Alright, if Israel does not have independent strike capability against Iran, who will come help? The United States is not willing until all other methods of deterrence against Iran fail. What then, given the limits of the Israeli air force, which can deliver a certain amount of explosives to selected targets and bring most of its aircraft back to the country unharmed?
Say Israel bombs Iran, a country of 70 million. It will not hesitate to chase Israelis all over the world, either directly or by proxy. Given the lessons learned the hard way, by Menachem Begin and Ariel Sharon during the Israeli onslaught in Lebanon in 1982 and by George W. Bush during the invasion of Iraq in 2003, advice for restraint is in order. Furthermore, the time to hit Iran’s nuclear infrastructure was several years ago, simply by taking out the uranium conversion plant at Isfahan, in central Iran. It is much harder now because the nuclear sites have been widely dispersed, buried underground and ringed by air-defense missiles.
Reports say the feeling of urgency in the Israeli defense sector is not confined only to the military. The Israeli military has been given a large budget increase to counter the Iranian threat. That is why it feels it must “persuade the political echelons that it can do the job” -- or watch the funding go elsewhere. So, if it is not possible to obliterate the Iranian nuclear industry altogether, it is calculated that Israel can set the Iranian nuclear clock back. The rest is expected from a retaliation of another kind.
The plan is said to be the brainchild of Air Force Gen. Ben-Israel, who was among the planners of the long-range Israeli strike executed with eight F-16 striker jets that destroyed and eliminated Iraq’s French-built Osirak reactor in June 1981. The new plan is said to involve much of the Israeli Air Force, including all nine of its aerial tankers to refuel up to 90-100 raiding jets flying at the limit of their capabilities. The refueling may have to continue for more than one day because targets are dispersed all over Iran.
Will Iran remain put and take the punch, turn the other cheek? “No way,” says the Iranian leadership. Iran will most probably retaliate by firing its Shahab-3B ballistic missiles at Israeli targets. These are its staple arsenal and are said to be more accurate than the Sajjil-2 missiles in the Iranian weapons inventory. Gen. Ben-Israel estimates that somewhere around 80 would hit Israeli territory. Is this accurate enough? Well, it is twice the number of older Soviet manufactured Scuds that Saddam ordered to be fired into Israel during the 1991 Gulf War.
Then the proxies will come -- namely, Hezbullah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip -- with their shorter-range missiles. Hezbullah is reported to have more than 40,000 rockets of various types and destructive capabilities. Hamas’s arsenal is much less impressive, but it can also inflict some damage. Considering the effect of this alliance, Israel’s defense circles believe that Israel will survive an Iranian missile attack and a less effective barrage of rockets from the “near abroad.”
If so, will the multilayered missile defense shield which Israel boasting of putting together be completed by the designated time of the attack? Israeli experts say the celebrated missile defense system is as of today still incomplete and incapable of countering a coordinated missile bombardment from several directions.
So it seems this “cost-benefit” analysis will only work in favor of Israel if the operation against Iran succeeds. Only then is it worth taking the risk. Otherwise, Israel will be denounced as the “aggressive devil” to be wiped out from at least the surface of the Middle East. Needless to say, the price of oil will soar, drawing the wrath of all consumer countries and world public opinion. Maybe more important than all these is that Iran will be perceived as a victim of Israeli aggression. One important result of this psychological aura will be Iran’s continued effort to renew its nuclear project, which will be less opposed than before. This is worse than the current situation.
