At least in the short run, we can forget about a new constitution and so on. 2010 will be a year of war between pro-coup and anti-coup forces, and instead of talking about democratization, we only focus on protecting the democracy as it is. There are two sides to this. First, the pro-coup coalition knows very well that in the medium run they will evaporate in a fully democratic Turkey if they do not stage a coup -- which will definitely be very bloody as the army may split into a few factions -- as soon as possible. Second, the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) is showing signs of fatigue and is not managing events skillfully. Unfortunately, there is not a Davutoğlu-type adviser with regard to internal affairs that can help Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who seems to be overburdened and overstretched.We can confidently claim that the pro-coup coalition is extremely busy nowadays preparing plan after plan to topple the government. With the Ergenekon case, they have been squeezed more every passing day. Their every move has been closely watched by the public, and what is worse, their old tactics -- and they do not know anything else -- no longer work. Every day they have to sacrifice one or two of their crypto allies to defend their line, but this has the effect of weakening them further. Their allies in the judiciary seem to have forgotten about the rule of law, justness, objectivity and fairness nowadays, and without even resorting to their usual tactics of demagogy and rhetoric, they abuse their position in the judiciary. For instance, if a democratic journalist writes something about the Ergenekon case, he is given a sentence of 18-20 months, but if a pro-coup writer publishes a similar piece but from the opposite angle, prosecutors do not care.
Generals are threatening intellectuals, writers, opinion makers, journalists and objective prosecutors and judges openly, and Chief of General Staff Gen. İlker Başbuğ has even said that if the prosecutors do not get the generals’ advice, the army and the judiciary may clash. Only a person totally ignorant of Turkish political history and current politics may not feel and see that there are countless assassination plans and plots under way and being worked on. There may be more so-called PKK mass murders; the recent fights of so-called students on university campuses will only multiply and intensify; workers will be motivated to go to the streets; and Turks will be incited to hatred against Kurds.
The AK Party should also brace itself for more attacks from within its own ranks; as we all know, there are several, in the wording of the army’s official documents, “key army correspondents in the AK Party.” If Mr. Erdoğan mistakenly believes that the recent case of AK Party Elazığ deputy Fevzi İşbaşaran, who made fun of the alleged assassination plans of Deputy Prime Minister Bülent Arınç and claimed that police are trying to drive a wedge between the army and the government, is coincidental, it would be a fatal mistake. Mr. Erdoğan should also lend an ear to the grass roots and get an idea what the man on the street who voted for him thinks about his groups, deputies, ministers, mayors and so on. He may not be able to form a single-party government after the 2011 elections.
The pro-coup coalition and bureaucratic oligarchy together with their international contacts would love to have a coup and will continue to try anything they can with their bare hands without even bothering and wasting time camouflaging themselves. Even though their success is very unlikely, if not impossible, as a result of the havoc and chaos they create in the country, nationalist sentiments will strengthen, paving the way for an anti-AK Party and anti-European Union Nationalist Movement Party (MHP)-Republican People’s Party (CHP) nationalist coalition. Their acts will deter international investors, will negatively influence Turkey’s credit ratings and will worsen the economy. This will cost Turkey trillions and the AK Party the government. With only a fraction of these trillions, the AK Party government should seriously think about multiplying police intelligence and National Intelligence Organization (MİT) budgets and personnel to tackle the pro-coup coalition’s plots. Reactivating the long-forgotten EU process -- despite the myopic French and Germans and their puppets -- may also help.
