2009 has been an improvement, but it still does not compare to the “golden years” when the Justice and Development Party (AKP) first came to power (or even prior to that in the last stages of the Bülent Ecevit government). In those days Turkey’s commitment was without question, with reforms coming quickly and being passed in Parliament with consensus. The EU was a national project. This is no longer the case, which is the fault of both partners. Nevertheless, the train remains on the tracks -- frankly neither the EU nor Turkey can afford for it to be derailed -- and Turkey has made some efforts this year including finally creating a post for a full-time chief negotiator, Egemen Bağış. He has done a sterling job of traveling all over Europe spreading the word that EU membership remains Turkey’s top foreign policy priority. Turkey has also made some inroads with the long list of EU demanded reforms, but many initiatives, for example, efforts to iron out further civil-military relations, have run into trouble and not found support from other parties in Parliament. The main opposition party, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), continues to claim that the AKP is simply using the EU reform process as a tool to make changes to legislation that have the end result of giving the party more power and influence, one way or another, which they claim is eroding the secular nature of the country. Furthermore, as we head toward the end of the year, it would seem that a number of other projects are also far from being success stories.The Dec. 11 decision by the Turkish Constitutional Court to ban the Democratic Society Party (DTP) on the grounds that it had become a focal point for terrorism has received very mixed reactions in the EU, where there is concern over the banning of a party that represents a considerable portion of the population that will now be without representation. While banning political parties is actually nothing new in Turkey -- given the DTP itself is the fourth reincarnation of the same Kurdish party, which was banned by the Turkish Constitutional Court during the 1980s and 1990s -- it is hardly a normal activity for a country negotiating EU membership. Furthermore, the EU angle apart, it could not have come at a worse time given that the government has been trying to win the hearts and minds of its Kurdish population through its Kurdish opening. Expectations that had been raised with promises of plans to improve Kurdish cultural and political rights have now come crashing down. With their own party being closed down, frustration will probably increase, and it will be far more challenging to end support for the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and may leave many believing that bringing about change through the ballot box is a waste of time.
Erdoğan’s plans for rapprochement with Armenia are hardly on track, either. As time goes by, it seems that ratification of the two protocols aimed at normalizing relations is increasingly unlikely to take place any time soon because of Turkey’s insistence on linking it to progress on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. As a Russian diplomat told me earlier this week, while the two sides are closer than at any point in the history of the conflict, it would seem they are still very far from reaching an agreement. Indeed it could still be years rather than months away. This was not what Erdoğan had been hoping for. Turkey risks losing credibility internationally and secondly may face another surge in Washington to have the genocide bill passed in April 2010. If progress is not made, US President Barack Obama will certainly come under increased pressure from the considerable Armenian lobby to do so. While the process of rapprochement with Armenia is not a matter of life or death for Turkey’s accession process, currently it is something the EU has been asking Turkey to do for a long time, and while there may be some sympathy for the complex situation regarding the Karabakh conflict, you will not find many people in Brussels that support Turkey’s position in linking the two issues.
As for 2010, the first part will be dominated by Cyprus, and there is already a feeling of dread that a crisis is on the horizon. Cyprus has become the biggest obstacle for Turkey’s relationship with the EU. The only way out is to find a comprehensive settlement to the decades-old problem. Failure would have far-reaching consequences for the EU, Turkey and the peoples of Cyprus while success would put new breath into Turkey’s relationship and bring peace and increased prosperity to the region.
