As we now know the other 26 member states refused to go along with this, and finally the EU issued a statement with slightly toughened language asking Turkey to comply and requesting the European Commission to report progress in the next Progress Report. However, at the same time Cypriot Foreign Minister Márkos Kyprianoú issued a statement saying Cyprus would put further conditions/benchmarks on six negotiating chapters as long as Turkey did not comply. While he may have been saying this to save face back home, it is still a worrying remark.Ankara has little intention of complying under the present circumstances as Turkey continues to link the extension of the protocol to the EU delivering on commitments made to the Turkish Cypriot community -- to lift their economic isolation -- in the aftermath of the 2004 Annan Plan referendum, which saw Turkish Cypriots vote in favour of reunification and Greek Cypriots against. As Turkey’s chief negotiator and minister for Europe, Egemen Bağış, said last week, it should be a “promise for a promise,” and if it comes down to it, Turkey will choose the Turkish Cypriots over the EU. So while Turkey continues to maintain that the EU should deliver and start to deal with Northern Cyprus as it does Taiwan, the Greek Cypriots continue to say there is no such isolation and will carry on blocking anything that they believe is tantamount to recognition.
The only way out of this black hole is with a solution to the Cyprus problem, and the EU is counting on the ongoing peace talks between the two Cypriot leaders to deliver a solution before Turkish Cypriot leader Mehmet Ali Talat goes into presidential elections in April. It will probably go down to the wire, and there will be a lot of intensive talks (Talat and Dimitris Christofias are due to start meeting six times per week in many different locations as from January), increased pressure from outside (we already see it from the UK) and much give and take. The ideal scenario is that a deal is squared and accepted by the two communities. This will resolve all of Turkey’s problems with the EU and Cyprus: normalisation of relations, the eight frozen chapters should be unfrozen, Turkey can extend the Ankara Protocol, problems between NATO and the EU should end and peace will reign in the region. This is a wonderful thought, and there is increasing optimism that a solution is achievable. Progress is being made in the talks and the many statements being made for domestic consumption should be ignored. As long as Turkey is not seen as “losing face,” Erdoğan will back it. It also seems that the Turkish military is keen to have its professional soldiers back home, and Greece would like to reduce its military costs on the island. If Turkish Cypriots can be a bit generous on the territory issue, the property problem is resolvable. Furthermore, the international environment is now conducive for a solution as the international community (including Russia) does not want the eastern Mediterranean to be ruled by one country. The safest way is for an independent Cyprus that poses no threat to any power’s strategic interest. This window of opportunity should not be squandered. New EU Foreign Policy Chief Catherine Ashton should do her part and visit the two leaders to offer her support.
The alternative is not a nice scenario. If a deal cannot be agreed on or if a deal does not receive the support of one of the communities, Turkey’s relationship with the EU will find itself in hot water, and accession will become an increasingly distant dream -- not to mention what will happen to the Turkish Cypriots. If Talat goes into elections without an agreed solution he will almost certainly be ousted by Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (KKTC) Prime Minister Derviş Eroğlu. Although Eroğlu has committed to continuing peace talks, it is fair to say that reunification dreams would end the day he arrived in office. The EU would find itself in a very difficult situation. Such is the importance of Turkey as a partner; it unthinkable that relations could be halted but at the same time the EU simply could not continue to turn a blind eye to Turkey non-compliance. Today, more than ever before, it is clear that Cyprus is the key to Turkey’s EU future.
