This organization brings together diverse Islamist groups, and with the use of the word “emirate,” they give a sufficient indication of their Sunni references and also implicitly announce which countries are supporting them.There are serious social problems likely to explode at any time in the Caucasus region. Nonetheless, it’s not known how much violence the Russian government will use to fight against this turmoil and to prevent new incidents of terrorism. Russia will definitely not renounce its policy of rejecting radical Islamist rhetoric, and Moscow will keep fighting against it. However, Russia must decide quickly with which countries it will cooperate in its fight against this peril.
The US under the Obama administration is the main global player trying to eradicate radical Islamist terror and isolate radical regimes, especially in Asia, which use faith as the pillar of their authoritarian methods of governing. Barack Obama’s success is not yet assured. However, it’s not a bad idea to establish cooperation with different social sectors and to stabilize a region or a country by using this region or country’s local actors. This approach is what makes Obama different to George W. Bush, even if, as Obama continues to use military methods, some confusion is perceptible in the air. If the Russian government adopts the “Obama way,” then it will be a necessity and logical that these two countries, who already agree that terrorism should be fought against, improve their cooperation. Russia can try, for once, to eradicate the threats without using harsh methods. Maybe they have finally learnt that radical measures only serve to reinforce the opposition.
In the coming days, Russia will take measures against the financial sources of radical movements which operate in its territory; in other words it will try to block the terrorists’ foreign support. It’s not hard to guess the countries which will be targeted by these counter-measures: Afghanistan, Pakistan and to some degree, Iran. But the Iran issue has already been left to the care of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and the sanctions against Tehran are in place, thanks to the United States. However, the problem persists in Afghanistan, and the US is having a hard time establishing a new structure there, a structure which may also be useful for Russia. If this is the case, Russia will probably be prompted to put Afghanistan at the top of its security agenda along with the Caucasus. The question is how and with whom Russia will prefer to act in Afghanistan. It’s quite clear that the Obama administration is already lending a hand to Moscow. This approach shows not only the former’s intention to help others but also its need to get help from them in return.
It’s hard for the US to break the current vicious circle only with the help of its reluctant “Westerner” allies, or with the Afghans, who don’t want to endure the American military presence in their country much longer. The latest terror attack in Russia has proven that an American failure will be highly undesirable for Russia, too. In other words, this attack has invited Russia to Afghanistan. It’s not known if new attacks will be perpetrated if Russia lingers, but many people are already convinced that the US-Russia cooperation is the formula which will bring stability to the region.
