Let us first talk about the key actors involved in solving the conflict by starting with the international community, which adds a fair dose of doubt to my optimistic outlook as the UN is understandably less than enthusiastic as it cannot afford a second no vote of any dimension. The UN is proactive on the island but only to a certain extent.Approaching Brussels and the European Union, we must acknowledge that it is in the middle of redefining itself, complete with its first-ever full-time president. Will it be Tony Blair or someone else? Will it be a true leader or a leading bureaucrat? We do not know. Putting Lisbon into practice will keep the EU busy for months to come -- if not longer -- hence embarking on any “risky” Cyprus-related venture seems highly unlikely. The question would be whether it is an issue for common foreign and security policy or whether it has become an “internal” matter involving one member state and one candidate country in the first place.
With neither the UN nor the EU in the driver’s seat or even certain whether it is one of their areas of concern, we come to the level of individual states and the northern part of the divided island, the sovereignty of which, except for Turkey, is not recognized by the international community. And employing the support of individual states explains my great hope that some time soon a solution will indeed be found.
Learning from best practices is something that requires great courage as you basically acknowledge that a certain policy-making area is in need of an overhaul. Finding lasting peace for Cyprus is one such area where external help needs be sought and cleverly employed. I suggest looking westward to London.
Let me come to my key point by mentioning another conflict first. The United Kingdom has managed to find peace in Northern Ireland. I am fully aware of the fact that this process was difficult and not flawless as up until today splinter groups exist that aim to destroy all that was achieved with even more bloodshed. In general terms, though, it has been a huge success as the alternative -- continuous mayhem -- would not have helped the mainland or northern part of Ireland (an integral part of the UK) either. I also know that members of families who lost loved ones in this conflict may not necessarily agree with what I just said, but this is where leadership and political wisdom must replace personal feelings, and that is the strategy consecutive British governments finally employed: working for the bigger picture for the benefit of the entire nation.
London and its governments, regardless of their political color, came to terms with the fact that a former empire had been reduced to a modern nation-state, a frontrunner nation-state though and very experienced in international relations.
Cyprus would benefit quite significantly from the same approach. First: Working for the common good, which in the case of the divided island can only mean putting individual concerns behind defending the wellbeing of the entire island. My personal viewpoint is that a two-state solution would not work out well, neither politically or economically. Hence unifying it is -- or if argued differently, not accepting a permanent division.
Second: Accepting history as what it is and looking forward. If a country like the UK managed a successful transition from empire to single nation-state, Cyprus should be able to leave the past (atrocities) behind and move on. This only works if both negotiating teams act as honest brokers and do not try to dominate or sideline the other side.
Third: Sharing best practices and listening to friendly advice is required and would benefit both the north and the south. The UK, as a former colonial power on the island, could become a role model for how to deal with conflict and then turn it into peace.
The process of finding lasting peace on Cyprus puts many matters into a proper, more modest context. It shows that the UN’s influence on people and nations has (logical) limitations. It underlines the fact that the EU is light-years away from a coherent set of “foreign” policies. It asks Turkey to act as regional power with enough clout and wisdom alike to not let past events block future developments. It gives the south and the north the historic chance to negotiate according to their own people’s devices. If the examples I gave above (working for the common good, accepting history as what it is and learning from best practices) are added onto that formula, my optimism may very well last until the item “Solution for Cyprus” can be taken off the international policy-making agenda.
