Ever since the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) -- which most of the Western media describe as “Islamist” -- came to power, this question has been bubbling away, and seven years since taking over the reins, the “hidden” Islamist agenda of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is still being talked about.Every foreign policy decision is closely scrutinized by eagle-eyed analysts and journalists and of course by Turkey’s opposition parties, which are always on the lookout for any skullduggery or signs that the government is putting Turkey’s secular roots at risk. It’s fair to say that the government has given them plenty of fodder to get their teeth into: Prime Minister Erdoğan’s walkout during a debate with Shimon Peres at the Davos World Economic Forum, Turkey’s decision to veto Israel’s participation in a joint air force exercise (citing the Israeli leadership’s conduct in Gaza) and Erdoğan’s recent visit to Iran during which he declared Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as his friend and accused those countries which oppose Tehran’s atomic program of hypocrisy can serve as a few examples. Indeed the Iranian visit in particular raised many eyebrows in the West. Combine this with Turkey’s apparent disillusionment with the EU given the slow progress of its membership talks, and Turkey’s commitment to the West is brought into question. But is this enough to suggest that Turkey is shifting its foreign policy orientation? I would doubt that very much.
Today Turkey’s foreign policy is famously focused on “zero problems with neighbors” and, given the fact that many of Turkey’s neighbors are part of the Muslim world, this means Turkey is bound to deal with them and build stronger relations even though they are countries (in the case of Syria and Iran, at least) that the West does not trust. Turkey has spent decades dealing with difficult neighbors, but to be taken as a serious regional power and increasing global player, Ankara needs to put its own house in order and move from acrimonious to positive relationships. This shift does not mean that Turkey’s historical relationship with the West is at risk -- rather, it should complement it. Turkey’s reaction to Israel may have shocked many in the West, but these decisions were taken out of genuine anger and concern, not because of some prefabricated public relations campaign to win support from the Arab street. Turkey has for years been encouraging progress on the Arab-Israeli peace process and will continue to do so.
On Iran, the fact is no country has the luxury of choosing its own neighbors. You have to make the best of what you have, and it would be unrealistic for the West to expect Turkey to have no relations with Tehran. Turkey needs cooperation with Iran on a whole range of issues, and the best way to go about this would hardly be for Turkey’s leadership to harshly criticize its leadership at every opportunity. Indeed while many in the West do not agree with the “friendly” relations between Erdoğan and Ahmadinejad, at the same they are not Iran’s neighbor and it is not they who risk having their gas cut off in the winter months or have Tehran refuse to cooperate on containing Kurdish militants. Furthermore, if Erdoğan manages to have the ear of the president, it can also be beneficial to the West. For an isolated, distrustful Iran, a friendly and powerful neighbor like Turkey is not to be snubbed. At the same time Turkey also has no interest in a nuclear Iran. Indeed, Turkey recently ordered advanced Patriot missile batteries from the US, which could be viewed as an action to defend itself against Iran’s missile program.
Furthermore, the upgrading or relations is not limited to the Muslim world. The recent thawing of relations with Armenia -- at the cost of risking relations with “Muslim kin” Azerbaijan -- is an example. And then, of course, there is Russia. Such has been the dramatic increase in ties that some people even talk of a “Putinization” of Turkey. A scary thought, to say the least. While relations with the EU are difficult, they are progressing and Turkey still remains a valuable and dedicated member of NATO and a country that continues to contribute substantially to numerous peacekeeping and military operations around the globe.
It seems to me that Turkey is not trying to re-establish the Ottoman Empire but is rather aiming for a smart foreign policy, a foreign policy that looks to the East and the West at the same time. There is no need to have a single geopolitical direction, no need to make a “choice.” This would not serve the interests of the country. So no one should expect Ankara to “resign” from NATO or quit its EU membership talks any time soon.
