In a report of the interview for the BBC, the prime minister is reported to have dismissed the nuclear non-proliferation treatment by suggesting that existing nuclear powers were being hypocritical in trying to stop Iran from joining the club. Just in case anyone was failing to grasp his drift, he also criticized the Israeli foreign minister, whom he said had threatened to use nuclear weapons against Gaza. Timing is everything in life, and Mr. Erdoğan’s remarks were reported on the eve of his visit to Tehran. There is little doubt that his hosts would have been encouraged to give the red carpet an extra vacuum. However, they also coincided with the visit of the UN inspection team examining a uranium plant whose existence was only recently acknowledged by the Iranian authorities. They, no doubt, will be scratching their heads, as will Turkey’s Western allies. While few in the post-Obama era would disagree with the prime minister’s assertion that the use of force against Iran’s nuclear program would be the road to madness, it is not EU or US policy to dismiss Iran’s nuclear ambitions as self-evidently harmless.
The key question is whether Mr. Erdoğan was caught off-guard or off-balance and was not quite aware that his efforts to find friends in Tehran might lose him more traditional allies elsewhere. This is not a view which a senior Turkish foreign policy adviser with whom I spoke was prepared to countenance. He said that it was not the prime minister’s habit to speak without first calculating the effect of his words. Clearly Mr. Erdoğan reckons that it is in Turkey’s interests to have Iran buy into its “no problems with the neighbors” policy, even if this meant paying a price elsewhere. As far as many Western countries are concerned, there are serious problems with Iran, and wishing them away just won’t work.
It is possible to feel a bit of sympathy for Mr. Erdoğan, now on the way to finishing his second term in office. He is trying to create a positive legacy by lancing some of his nation’s festering problems. There has been a major initiative to normalize relations with Armenia and others to remove from Kurdish dissent its radical sting. This government holds as a sacred tenet the belief that it will enhance its standing in Europe by being an accepted honest broker in countries which operate on a frequency very different from that broadcast by Brussels. The traditional paradigm for EU accession is that states are admitted as they embrace European-ness. This is a problem from which Ankara has become disillusioned. It suspects that no matter how hard it tries, it will never succeed. It appears to have adopted another paradigm, that its value to the West is its difference and that Turkey alone can tame the wild beast that lurks inside its neighbors’ hearts.
This is a risky strategy, and the prime minister’s advisers may now be asking themselves, after reading the Guardian interview, whether their boss has not overplayed his hand. There are already articles appearing in Western media asserting that Ankara is drifting eastwards, and these latest comments might suggest it has slipped its moorings altogether. This still is not the right conclusion. Mr. Erdoğan is trying to project the image of a strong nation, able to master the complexities of its region. Willy-nilly, he is issuing a threat as well. By getting friendlier with Iran, Turkey is issuing a warning to Brussels: “Look at the consequences of your imperious stand and your reluctance to be more supportive of Turkey’s application. We can either be an agent of European interests or stand in their way.” Let us hope no one calls his bluff.
