As you read this article I will have already been in Yerevan to take part in a series of discussions, all of which should be most welcome to ease tensions and lead to normalization between Turkey and Armenia. I do hope to meet real segments of the younger generation in particular and be able to convey them to you, as we are on the verge of witnessing the signing of two protocols, and, more importantly, preparing to host a number of Armenian soccer fans in Bursa. They will include, one hopes, the very president of Armenia. It is still unclear whether Serzh Sarksyan will attend the match and cheer his national team. He should. Abdullah Gül, president of Turkey, defied the resistance to do so, and, with no conditions set, leaving all unsettled issues aside, visited the Armenian capital.
Although Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan may be right, in essence, that Sarksyan should come without setting the condition of opening the border, he certainly knows that it is not an easy position for the president of Armenia to manage the process of coming or not to Turkey. Sarksyan has to operate on various fronts, all very challenging and time consuming.
The initial protocols indirectly suggest that he deepen talks with Ilham Aliyev, the Azeri president. The meeting scheduled in Moldova in a week's time between them is crucial for whether “normalization” will be dragged out over time (and risk losing its “magic”), but it is also understandable that Sarksyan will also meet in the coming days the diaspora in various countries in order to convince (and take the pulse of) its representatives. Then, he has the domestic opposition to deal with, before the agreed ratification process takes place in Parliament.
Nevertheless, the signs coming from UN General Assembly contacts are that the protocols are due to be signed -- most probably -- before the soccer match. This will have completed the process after the ratification by the national deputies on both sides.
The Turkish side seems relatively at ease with it. In particular, comments by Deniz Baykal, the leader of the Republican People's Party (CHP), in a closed meeting with EU ambassadors in Ankara some days ago, must have come as a relief for them. Baykal was not as harsh on the issue as he has been when addressing the domestic public, and he chose to emphasize the occupied “pockets” on Azeri soil. He seemed to agree with Erdoğan that concerning the Karabakh issue constant pressure must be on Yerevan. (Erdoğan's efforts to persuade Obama on it were visible during their interaction in New York.) One may take this to mean that the sessions on ratifying the protocol, when the time comes, will be mainly between the Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP).
Ironically, in another context, two separate problems place Turkey and Armenia on the same side. Turkey is struggling with having to open its land and air borders to Cyprus; and Armenia faces a somewhat similar dilemma with the occupied and ethnically cleansed Karabakh.
Of course, irony aside, in this specific case between Armenia and Turkey problems seem somewhat easier on the practical level but much harder on the psychological side. The air border is open, with regular flights from İstanbul and Antalya to Yerevan. The process is directly led by the two sides, not the EU or the UN. The key dimension is tackling the process intelligently.
Both sides are convinced that normalization is a necessity. But the gradual change demanded from the process stands as a contrast with the time constraints for the politicians in power. Nevertheless, bold gestures, small as they seem, help accelerate processes more than imagined.
Sarksyan, therefore, should revise his position, change his mind and attend the football match. This will not only add to the number of fans but also prepare him for the chance that -- hopefully -- he meets not only with Gül and Erdoğan but also with Baykal and other political actors for informal discussions before or after the match. Every encounter of that kind counts and may eventually make the process irreversible.
