Stalled by Azerbaijan's concerns over the future of the Karabakh region, negotiations were frozen for a while. So we thought. As it turns out, the Turkish and Armenian sides were in full swing, working through the Swiss.Let's get the facts right first. The official declaration of the agreed protocol between the two countries is an expression of will and only the beginning of open negotiations between Turkey and Armenia. There is a general road map, but its details are to be worked out. From what we know so far, diplomatic relations will be established gradually and within a certain timeframe. Both countries will officially recognize their borders, i.e., Armenia will abide by the 1921 Kars Agreement. Embassies will be opened. Trade and other relations will be improved. Finally, a commission of historians will be formed to look into the events of 1915-1916. As you may remember, Armenia has rejected this Turkish proposal before.
But there are also concerns on all sides. Armenia insists on keeping its relations with Turkey strictly bilateral, i.e., no injection of the Karabakh issue, which relates to Azerbaijan and not to Turkey. Turkey insists on opening up a new page in the Armenian genocide claims. On the Azerbaijani side, they are concerned that they will be left out in the cold if Turks and Armenians reach an agreement without a settlement on the Karabakh issue, a settlement that will be accepted in Baku.
Can Azerbaijan stall the process again? It is difficult to predict because the Azerbaijani-Armenian track is still a big riddle. The Minsk group will play a key role. So will Turkey. Turkey does not and will not want to lose the Azerbaijanis in order to make peace with Armenia. It is both a matter of national pride and domestic politics. That's why Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu said in Cyprus that “no process is more important that the Turkish-Azerbaijani friendship.”
The real test of the new Turkish-Armenian protocols will be the resistance of domestic politics. According to the agreement, the protocols will have to be approved by the respective parliaments of the two countries. The bitter battle between the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) and the opposition over the Kurdish issue will not help the process in the Turkish Parliament. As a habit, both the Republican People's Party (CHP) and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) will oppose the new plan for purely domestic political considerations. The Erdoğan government will have to undertake football diplomacy with the opposition parties, too!
At any rate, this new phase in Turkish-Armenian relations is extremely important and shows Turkey's growing abilities to deal with crisis situations and launch new initiatives at the same time. The new Kurdish initiative was off to an excellent start until it hit the concrete wall of the opposition. Let's hope the same thing will not happen with the Armenian process.
