According to old Kremlin logic, there are only two superpowers of global stature. So why would Moscow engage in helping to establish a new and independent economic and political force in its own backyard?Russian leaders have become much more aware of the compulsory personal qualities that are required when representing one's country in today's diplomatic circles: topical knowledge, professional manners, multicultural sensitivities and, ideally, a lot of charisma, although the fourth component is something many current Russian office holders often lack.
Russia's image in the Western world has significantly improved, too. While the Kremlin is still a sacred place where participants of discreet meetings prepare future policies shielded from the public eye, it has somewhat opened its doors, or at least so it seems.
Years ago, on a visit to both Moscow and Baku, I recall our plane was in a holding pattern over the Russian capital. Looking out from high above the city, we were greeted by vistas of affluent lake-side suburbs complete with weekend homes, forests and sailing boats. While at the time the majority of Russians were, financially speaking, very poor, a small, but very influential homegrown elite managed to enjoy the finer things in life. “Old Russia hands” will remember that the Hotel National, just around the corner from the Kremlin, was the unofficial meeting place where the East and West came together over a drink far away from bothersome protocol. The official propaganda, creating a façade of defending the working classes, did not really benefit the average Russian citizen -- the closest they would ever come to Western food, international beverages and even high-quality locally manufactured goods was to go window shopping outside the foreign-currency-only outlet centers. Official “class war” rhetoric did not prevent certain comrades from amassing unbelievable wealth during and, in particular, after the collapse of the Soviet empire.
It was a country with great charms though, and it had very friendly and very literate citizens. However, their leaders were autocratic, and the KGB controlled most, if not all, private and public activities. “Glasnost” and attempts to open up the country were intended to change all that, but any close observer of developments in present-day Russia will acknowledge that the state still has near-absolute power. The fact that many young Russians now wear authentic instead of fake designer clothes and that a bottle of vodka can no longer be exchanged for a pair of “imported” blue jeans on the black market outside restaurants frequented by Westerners does not mean the Russian state machinery has been dismantled.
So can we unconditionally trust today's Russian leaders when it comes to believing in what they say, do or promise? Has the reformed Communist Party given in to its new brand of Western-oriented, more cosmopolitan leaders?
Putin is an extremely clever politician who easily doubles as his own spin doctor. So what could be his real reason to court Turkey? Can his blossoming love affair with Ankara be attributed to the fact that he is a selfless man of good intentions, or could there perhaps be a hidden agenda being devised behind the walls of the monumental buildings lining one side of Moscow's famous Red Square?
Many other questions need answers, too: Does Moscow really wish to see the European Union extend its external borders to include Turkey? Does Russia no longer wish to dominate the natural gas and other energy markets for decades to come? Could Russia perhaps be aiming to use Turkey to re-establish closer ties with Damascus?
We must, however, compliment Ankara for its multifaceted diplomacy and its proactive stance on engaging in international relations. The Turkish government has alerted Brussels to the fact that while Ankara wishes to remain loyal to its EU road map, it can at the same time employ an open-door policy toward Moscow. Besides, Turkey could establish itself as energy corridor country No. 1, making both Russia and the EU happy.
So, what is in it for Turkey itself? Access to much needed energy at reduced costs, perhaps including financial support for developing alternative energy sources, or fast-tracking Turkey's EU membership? A future power axis between Moscow and Ankara or promises of a doubling of the trade volume both ways? Turkey must keep Brussels in its eyesight at all times as Turkey's EU opponents had a field day when the news broke about the South Stream pipeline and Turkey granting Moscow construction and transportation rights in its Black Sea waters. We should remember that running foreign countries like satellites is what Russia was very good at. If South Stream gets the green light and the Nabucco pipeline is delayed or not built at all, only one country will have won: Vladimir Putin's Russia!
