This statement, quoted in a report by the International Crisis Group (ICG), sounded not quite like statements Kurds of northern Iraq have been making for a long time. Until very recently, they made statements threatening Turkey and, because of this, an approach such as this one should signify great change.Although strong dialogue established between Ankara and Baghdad and the fact that Jalal Talabani, an Iraqi president of Kurdish origin, can pay a visit to Ankara after so many years and increased traffic of mutual visits by and between official and civilians of Turkey and northern Iraq have considerably eased tension, there is another factor that was influential in this change and that must not go unnoticed. This factor can be explained best by referring to every worsening relationship between Baghdad and Iraqi Kurds and the start of the US schedule to pull out of Iraq. In particular, when we give serious thought to the settlement of the Kurdish issue in Turkey, we need to closely monitor what is happening in Iraq, an indivisible part of the issue in many respects.
Despite the death of more than 40,000 people and property losses amounting to billions of dollars since 1984, the 25-year-old terrorism problem has not been able to disrupt the feelings of fraternity between Turks and Kurds. Except for small exceptions, our people have tended to regard it not as a fight between two sister groups but as a conflict between a terrorist organization and the state. Despite the sorrows experienced, the number of Kurdish citizens who say "yes" to the question, "Do you want to secede from Turkey?" in many polls is still not above 5 percent.
However, things are not as optimistic in Iraq, as the country's unity is loosely knitted. The alliance established between Kurds and Shiites in the early years of the US occupation has been shaken. Almost all Kurdish officials invariably make negative statements about the Baghdad administration. The general belief is that Arab nationalism is on the rise in Baghdad. Kurds are afraid of losing the rights and major advantages they have obtained so far. The US troop pull-out further reinforce these feelings.
The rivalry between Kurds in northern Iraq and the Baghdad administration is not new, but there is now a major difference. Having the advantages of controlling important positions such as the Presidency, the Foreign Ministry and the General Staff in Baghdad and independently conducting their own affairs in the north, Kurds now have a powerful army of some 130,000 members. The 600,000-strong army commanded by the Baghdad administration may come to the point of engaging in a hot conflict with this Kurdish army -- particularly in undefined and contested regions of the country.
The rising tension between Kurds and Arabs in Mosul, Kirkuk and Turhurmatu is being covered by international media as a sign of a great danger. It is said that Kurds and Arabs are on the verge of total war in Iraq. It is claimed that a conflict may arise between the central Iraqi army and the peshmerga in the region, called the trigger line stretching from the Syrian border to the Iranian border.
Recently, the 26th brigade of the 7th division of the Iraqi army attempted to pass through Mahmour, a Kurdish-dominated area, in order to go from Diyala province to the Sunni Arab city of Mosul. Kurdish civilians prevented them by closing down the roads. Hasro Goran, an official of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), led by Massoud Barzani, announced that if the Iraqi army insisted on proceeding, a hot conflict might arise. Thanks to mediation by the US and bargaining between Arabs and Kurds in Baghdad, the 26th brigaded withdrew without any shots fired.
Muhammed İhsan, the minister of the regional government of northern Iraq in charge of contested regions, notes that even the slightest skirmish may trigger large-scale conflicts. "In the event of a conflict, I am sure it will quickly spread from Sinjar near Syria to Khanaqin near Iraq," he says.
Last year, a similar situation was encountered when the Iraqi army sent its 12th division, comprising 9,500 soldiers -- 75 percent Shiite Arab -- to Kirkuk. Some Kurdish officials accused the central government of trying to blockade Kirkuk and banish the peshmerga from the region as Saddam had done.
Having experienced disappointment with Baghdad, Iraqi Kurds have started to assume a more objective attitude toward Turkey. This is a good development, but we have to take into consideration a possible start of a conflict between Arabs and Kurds, leading to a division of Iraq. Perhaps the divided Iraq scenario that some neocons had advocated will be realized in this way.
