The new energy map places Turkey at the center of the strategic future of the entire region. But can Turkey cope with the political challenges this involves?When new Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu wrote his book “Strategic Depth” almost 10 years ago, he was an academic with a vision. He had laid out Turkey's place in the world as a country at the crossroads of cultures and civilizations. Turkey was important for its history as well as its geography. No country in the region has the historical depth and cultural affinity Turkey has with its neighbors. This is a bonus from the legacy of the Ottoman Empire, an asset not many Turks realized until recently.
But Turkey also has a unique geo-political position in the region, connecting several continents within the vicinity of the world's largest energy resources. But Turkey's geo-strategic significance goes beyond energy. Turkey is a vital part of the world's largest political fault lines extending from the Balkans to the Caucasus and the Middle East. What happens in this extended geography determines world politics from Europe to the United States.
For Davutoğlu, it is these two invariable assets, i.e., history and geography, which give a country its strategic depth. Turkey has both assets with a competitive advantage over others but has hardly used them in its foreign policy until recently.
But there are also other variables that extend Turkey's strategic depth: a history of democracy, a young and dynamic population, a fledgling soft power capacity, a strong civil society and middle class and a certain level of scientific and technologic infrastructure. Turkey's chances of becoming a truly regional power and an aspiring global player depend on putting these assets to smart use.
Minister Davutoğlu is making full use of these assets in an effort to extend Turkey strategic depth. His most recent trip to Iraq showed the extent of regional cooperation. The visit was not the most important diplomatic move; such visits to neighboring countries have become routine now for Turkish policy makers. This in itself shows the level of regional engagement.
What was significant was Minister Davutoğlu's declaration that with Iraq, Turkey has moved from a “zero-problem policy with [its] neighbors” to “maximum cooperation.” This means we should expect deeper and wider relations with Iraq and other neighbors in the near future. Turkey spent several years clearing the ground in the region. With the exception of Armenia, Turkey has good relations with all of its neighbors and no border disputes. With the new Kurdish initiative, there is a good chance that the political and diplomatic relations with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in northern Iraq will improve quickly. What Davutoğlu is saying is that it is not enough not to have problems; it is time to build something on that basis.
This is strategic depth at work. As Turkey establishes new credentials every day, from energy security to regional diplomacy, it becomes a stronger and more reliable partner for all regional powers and global players. Turkey is acting in a post-modern, fluid and interconnected world of global relations. It does not see itself as representing one bloc against the other.
Those who think Turkey will lose its strategic Western anchor by developing good relations with Russia or Middle Eastern countries are simply wrong because they are still operating under the spell of the Cold War era. The move from zero problems to maximum cooperation is the next stage of the policy of strategic depth. But it is also the reality of the 21st century.
