He is held responsible for the Benazir Bhutto assassination and the Red Mosque siege in Islamabad, which left scores dead. Because of his links with al-Qaeda, he was added to the most wanted list, and the US government offered a $5 million reward for his head.According to news reports, Mehsud and some of his relatives were killed by a missile launched from a drone. The Pakistani Interior Ministry, the CIA and one of the Mehsud's lieutenants, Kifayatullah, have all confirmed his death, while another Taliban figure, Hakimullah Mehsud, claimed that these reports were false. These two Taliban figures' contradictory declarations can be interpreted as the reflection of an internal power struggle among potential successors. This power struggle demonstrates that the Pakistani Taliban is at a crossroads in its relationship with al-Qaeda and international terrorism. The “political wing” of the Taliban seems to be trying to eliminate the “military wing.” This can also be seen as an effort to disconnect the Afghan and Pakistani Taliban. In fact, even in Afghanistan, there is a discreet policy aiming at finding a compromise with some Taliban leaders to eliminate others who defend a “violence policy.”
This event reminds us also how closely the US administration cooperates with the governments of Afghanistan and Pakistan to eradicate violence and radicalism: an American drone can fly over Pakistani airspace and kill a terrorist. What is important from now on is to understand in which manner the Taliban perceives this close cooperation and how it will react to this assassination.
If Baitullah Mehsud is really dead, there are two possibilities: First, without their leader, the Pakistani Taliban will suffer some kind of disorganization. History is full of examples about the weakening, division and disappearance of organizations when deprived of their leader. This doesn't mean that the organization cannot heal its wounds in the future, but at least the initial shock will give some precious time to this organization's foes, who can meanwhile find a rational solution and win the struggle. For example, an effort can be made to replace the dead leader with someone approachable in order to get a political interlocutor who can sit at a table with the US or the local government.
The second possibility is to have an atmosphere making the organization larger, more tough and radical as a reaction to their leader's assassination. We have plenty of examples of that possibility, too. It's sufficient to recall that Israel's policy of killing Hamas leaders with missiles did help Hamas become more popular and intransigent. In brief, the elimination of the leader doesn't mean that the organization will disappear automatically. This assassination can even help the Taliban groups in Afghanistan and in Pakistan reinforce their ties in the face of the common enemy. Additionally, al-Qaeda can claim that this assassination's real target was al-Qaeda; thus, they can organize spectacular attacks in order to “punish” Pakistan or the US.
Who knows, maybe the US wants al-Qaeda to carry out some operations in order to flush them out in the open and to hunt them down. Perhaps, a new and big terror attack may push other countries in that region to ask for US help, who knows?
And if Mehsud is not dead, the US will try again.
