Row after row of graves evoke images of the young men who have lost their lives fighting for their country. Indeed it is an extremely sobering image. From the Azerbaijani side alone, more than 35,000 lives have been lost, and further lives continue to be lost on a regular basis. In the West, they call it a frozen conflict when indeed it is anything but frozen. But those who die today do not die in Nagorno-Karabakh, but rather on the front line which exists in the occupied territories that Armenia has taken from Azerbaijan -- seven provinces in total.
In muddy trenches comparable to those of the last two world wars, Armenian and Azerbaijani soldiers continue to exchange sniper fire. There is no peacekeeping mission or international force to keep a check on what is happening. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) does its best and maintains a small contingent that visits every two weeks or so, but only with the permission of the two sides, which makes their presence rather questionable. From an international standpoint Nagorno-Karabakh is part of Azerbaijan -- as recognized by four United Nations resolutions -- but at the same time, resolutions continue to exist on paper alone as the West continues to tolerate the Armenian occupation not just of Nagorno-Karabakh but also of the occupied territories. There is never any condemnation of Armenia for this occupation and only minimal calls for Armenian withdrawal. The Armenian lobby has successfully built up an image of itself as being the victim and Azerbaijan the aggressor, which is not at all representative of the situation. Let us be reminded that Armenia continues to occupy around 17 percent of Azerbaijan's territory. Since the early 1990s, peace negotiations have been taking place under the auspices of the OSCE Minsk Group, which comprises Russia, the US and France, but they have been deeply politicized with each nation searching for a solution which best suits its own interests. Therefore, after more than a decade, a solution to the conflict still seems far from guaranteed. Ever since I started working on Nagorno-Karabakh, I have been hearing the same thing -- the next meeting between the two heads of state is crucial, they will reach an agreement, they will sign on the dotted line. Unfortunately until now precisely none of these things have ever happened. The news is always the same: There are lots of smiling faces, and we are told that things are progressing well; however, nothing is ever agreed on, and so it continues.
Although there seems to be increasing agreement on a number of issues, there is still no agreement on the eventual status of Nagorno-Karabakh. Nagorno-Karabakh's population -- now almost 100 percent Armenian following the removal of Azerbaijanis from the region -- continues to insist that the only way forward is independence. Frankly, they are living in a fantasy world. With a population of only 120,000 and given that not even their motherland Armenia has recognized them, it is highly improbable that such an outcome will occur. However, at the same time it is not very likely that Nagorno-Karabakh will ever again be an integral part of Azerbaijan. Somehow they have to find some middle ground between the two.
Furthermore, while Azerbaijan may talk about a military option still being on the table, it is highly unlikely that such an option will ever occur. The humanitarian costs of such an action would be catastrophic, with no guarantees that Azerbaijan would actually win given that Armenia has the support of the Russian military. Also, the August 2008 war between Russia and Georgia is a chilling reminder of why a military option is not a solution. To this end, while President İlham Aliyev may talk the tough talk, it is more than likely that the billions of armaments that Azerbaijan has purchased will never see the light of day. Rather, they are simply purchased as a symbolic tool to maintain public support. Azerbaijan is a nation growing increasingly confident thanks to its energy reserves and has no wish to be humiliated a second time by its small neighbor Armenia. But, at the same time, both countries need to learn the act of compromise.
As for Russia -- which is clearly the lynch pin for a solution -- Moscow frequently does the unexpected. In the past, the Russians have not been eager to bring about a solution to Nagorno-Karabakh given that the instability in the region has suited them quite well. However, since the war between Russia and Georgia, the Russians have been increasingly keen to show their nice side and want to take the driver's seat in finding a solution to the conflict. But Russians being Russians always have an ulterior motive. A solution here could be used tighten the noose they already have over Georgia, increasingly isolating the country to bring down President Mikhail Saakashvili.
Clearly, for the Southern Caucasus to be stable and prosperous, a solution to Nagorno-Karabakh is required. Without a solution, the entire region, as well as the West, will continue to suffer; for example, there will be negative impacts on the energy and transport projects that are foreseen for the region. Therefore, it is in everybody's interest to ensure that a solution is really just around the corner.
