This is Turkey, a land of problems piled up, made complicated to the point of modern Gordian knots. This is Turkey, haunted by them, finding no more manners of escapism to evade truth.
If a conventional government had been in power -- many of which we have seen succeeding each other in defeat and failure in the past decade-- there would be a thick fog of pessimism in columns like this. But, we have been faced with an unpredictable, unusual, “willing” political movement in place for some time, albeit often in disarray, out of focus.
There is now a race, as with other major issues waiting at the door, about the bleeding Kurdish issue. Abdullah Öcalan, who is still, in robotic manner, painted as a monster, demeaned by not being mentioned by name in a hostile, shallow and deeply nationalistic press, is reportedly to release his own solution -- a “road map” -- out of the problem.
Perhaps anxious about being outrun by this announcement, which is expected in the infamous anniversary of the first armed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) attack, which took place in mid-August 1984, when the PKK attacked military outposts, the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) government has now accelerated its own plan to come out with a “road map,” possibly before that date. This seems important in an effort to not be painted a follower of a jailed leader of an internationally recognized terrorist organization.
What is there to do? There is a need to focus on the issue. However, everything that could have been said about it has already been said. Questions still remain on the urgency of certain aspects -- that is, if we are to believe that most layers of “deep Ankara” have reached a consensus on a final, peaceful solution and that the armed wings of the PKK feel they are at the end of a dead end road. Despite its outbursts of criticism, one can even count the opposition in when speaking of this frame of consensus.
Less problematic aspects are easy to count. Both the US and the European Union are in support of a comprehensive plan, and Iraqi Kurds have been brought more or less in synch with the aspirations of the parties to the conflict.
The focus must be on the domestic ground: Whether or not it is a durable “agreement” between the government and the army on the “plan” will define the course. I agree with the caution expressed by Lale Sarıibrahimoğlu yesterday in her column. My sources, too, point to the risk of disruption in the silent agreement between Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Chief of General Staff Gen. İlker Başbuğ because of a sharp disagreement that has arisen over allegations of new coup plots and the reduction of the power of military courts. The official alliance for a civilian solution will be, to express it mildly, on the razor's edge. Both figures must from now on put a priority on large-scale public diplomacy because the issue is too thorny and open to manipulation, but there is no sign of this. To the contrary…
Then, issue number two is who will be the “counterpart” at the stage of “negotiations” with the PKK. Öcalan will definitely include himself as the person who will call the final shots when it comes to disarmament of his movement. It would be naive to believe that he will not demand his release, sooner or not too much later, from jail. It is also the overwhelming desire for Kurds who vote for the Democratic Society Party (DTP). Öcalan knows that this makes him different from other controversial leaders raised on armed struggle. His popularity must always be on the table, as a trump card.
There must be urgency, then, to finding the right mode on, not whether but how, to communicate with Öcalan. His exclusion is no longer possible. There are issues – laying down the arms and amnesty for PKK members – that must be dealt with his participation. An amnesty plan must be prepared in secrecy to be ready at hand.
Ankara's road map must be comprehensive. Investigations into extrajudicial killings, the arrest of high-ranking officers allegedly responsible for summary executions of thousands of Kurds must be allowed to go high up to include former prime ministers. A Turkish “Truth and Reconciliation Commission” must immediately be set up. Ankara must also consider lifting its reservations from the European Charter of Local Self-Government and amend articles in its constitution. These steps AK Party can (and should) take, without involving Öcalan - or anybody else - from the Kurdish side.
But if the AK Party believes Kurds will be satisfied with minor reforms based on language rights, it will be on the wrong path.
