There are five candidates for the presidential post and though none seems to be strong enough to challenge Barzani's premiership, the amount of votes they receive will hint at an ever-growing opposition to his unquestionable lead.Barzani had already suffered a blow when his administration was forced, both by the central Baghdadi administration and the regional opposition organized around Nawshirwan Mustafa and his Change List, to delay the referendum on the new constitution. Observers say that the real blow is yet to come in the elections.
In the run-up to the elections, the second partner of the ruling coalition, Iraqi President Jalal Talabani's Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), gave birth to a new political movement. A charismatic founding member of the PUK, Mustafa split away from the PUK and established his own political party appealing to the younger population in the region and to those who want to see the ruling Barzani-Talabani coalition be more accountable to the public.
No accurate public survey has been carried out in Kurdistan, but everything we have at hand suggests that the Change List will win a minimum of 15 seats in the 111-seat Parliament. Eleven seats are already allocated to the minority parties, and it seems that the Islamist-Social Democrat coalition will perform as well as the Change List. That means that the KDP-PUK coalition ruling the regional administration for some 13 years will lose the absolute majority in Parliament and will rely on a simple majority to pass new laws. The Kurdistan List of the KDP-PUK coalition had won 104 of the 111 seats in the previous election.
The newcomers to the Kurdistan Parliament are not only a challenge to the strength of the ruling coalition; they have the potential to threaten its internal dynamics. The KDP-PUK coalition was founded at a time when the KDP and the PUK had equal backing in society, and accordingly, the parliamentary seats and the ministerial posts were to be distributed evenly between the two parties. The prime minister's office would change hands between the two parties. According to these initial arrangements, the next prime minister of the regional administration would be from the PUK line, sending the prime minister of the last 13 years, Nechirvan Barzani, into retirement.
But Nechirvan Barzani is not willing to comply with this agreement, observers say. He cleverly claims that the agreement between the two parties should be reviewed in view of the fact that the PUK is no longer the same PUK. The KDP already complied with the agreement while submitting the Kurdistan List for the parliamentary election. That is already enough favors for a weakened PUK, Nechirvan Barzani thinks. Why leave the prime ministerial office to them?
Nechirvan Barzani's second concern is even more understandable. The Kurdish prime minister says that Mustafa's Change List is a natural ally for the PUK. Though the Change List is a split from Talabani's PUK, there are still historical, cultural and marriage-related bonds between the two parties. Mustafa was and still is a source of inspiration for the policies of the PUK, and Nechirvan Barzani is bothered by the possibility that they may once again come together in a loose coalition, if not under the umbrella of the same party. Though it has lost a significant portion of its public support, the PUK is going to receive an equal amount of seats in Parliament as the KDP and add to that number the seats the Change List is going to win.
Will the KDP be able to say “no” to its long-time ally and keep the prime ministerial post in its hands? The answer to that question will decide the political career of Nechirvan Barzani and the future of the Kurdish democracy.
