Perhaps European countries, the primary dependants of Russia's gas monopoly -- which has since the winter of 2005 closed the natural gas valve during the coldest times so as to punish Ukraine -- understand the strategic value of natural gas the most.The idea of the Nabucco gas pipeline, first proposed in 2002, gained momentum when this problem surfaced. Although initially treated more like a fantasy, it eventually made progress in becoming reality.
The Nabucco agreement signed at a spectacular ceremony in Ankara on Monday is a critical milestone in this progress. Personally, I believe the signing ceremony, which brought together European Commission President José Manuel Barroso and leaders of 11 other countries (mainly from the consumer side), is an important declaration of how seriously they take the 3,300-kilometer-long Nabucco gas pipeline project, which has an estimated cost of 7.5 billion euros.
Although it may initially be seen as a shortcoming that Azerbaijan is currently the only supplier country, it is likely that as this project evolves from fantasy into reality, we will see more supplier countries quickly join the process in the future.
We can start looking forward to seeing natural gas from Iraq, Syria, Qatar, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and possibly even Iran transported to European markets through Nabucco. Without doubt, Nabucco is more than just a simple economic project as it will also establish a bond between natural gas-rich Muslim countries (some of them Turkic) located to the east and southeast of Turkey and Christian European countries that are in need of this natural gas.
Besides, if the project's economic aspect was the only important part, Russian theses would have gained momentum, and Russian projects such as South Stream and Baltic Stream, which are more economically rational, would have priority.
At this point, European countries -- which are uneasy about their sole reliance on Russia for energy, stemming from having to put up with Russia's policy of using natural gas as a weapon in recent years -- have an immense sense of need for security and stability in their energy supply that goes way beyond economic rationality.
It is clear that European countries, which meet most of their gas needs from Russia, are in urgent need of alternative resources and routes. This is especially applicable to Eastern European countries, which completely depend on Russia for their natural gas. Once Nabucco goes into service, it will supply one-third of Europe's total natural gas demand, partially relieving Europe's uneasiness.
Turkey, which has been subject to double standards with respect to its membership in the European Union, will have a very important strategic trump card owing to Nabucco. As for the EU, which despite being an economic giant is seen as a political and strategic dwarf, it will undersign a very important strategic effort with this project.
Contrary to the US, the public in Europe, which is relatively detached from problems in the Caucasus and the Middle East, will no longer be able to remain indifferent to even the slightest developments in the region once Nabucco starts pumping gas.
The “let's make everyone happy” stance that was dominant during the Georgia-Russia war of last year will no longer prevail. Stability in regional countries is going to become a sensitive issue for the EU. Any development that carries the potential of hindering natural gas flow will set off alarms in the EU. This will in turn require the EU to adopt a more proactive stance in order to resolve problems before they develop into crises. It is not difficult to predict that this will have a positive effect on stability and peace in the region.
The Nabucco project, which will pave the way for reciprocal strategic dependence between Muslim natural gas suppliers and Christian consumers, will add force to the Alliance of Civilizations initiative and strike a strong blow to the clash of civilizations thesis. This project will connect Europe and Muslims countries via Turkey.
The possibility of Iranian natural gas resources joining the pipeline -- considering the Obama administration's tolerant attitudes -- should not be overlooked. If this happens, Iran will seize an opportunity to integrate with the people of the world after 30 years of isolation from the international system. As economic and strategic interests come into play with the Nabucco project, we will see that it is possible to repair ideological blindness.
Nabucco, which gets its name from Giuseppe Fortunino Francesco Verdi's four-act opera, which explains love, hatred, conspiracy and war during King Nebuchadnezzar II's siege of Jerusalem, will hopefully and unlike in the opera open the doors for peace, stability and prosperity in the region and for all mankind.
