The Russian visit is part of Obama's global public diplomacy effort. As a “high-flying and well-traveled president,” Obama seems determined to make a clean break from the Bush legacy. But there are serious challenges awaiting Obama and the most important one is when and how substance will replace style in his foreign policy. As far as style is concerned, Obama has done everything right so far. Even on Iran, he proved himself to be a man of principle. His policy of non-interference and direct engagement with Iran is intact despite mounting pressure after the Iranian elections that gave Mahmoud Ahmadinejad his second term. The critics like to portray Obama as weak on foreign policy and national defense and would love to see him fail. Zbigniew Brezinski, one of the gurus of American foreign policy, believes there is no shortage of people in Washington supporting Obama's engagement policy with Iran only to see it fail so that they can get back to business as usual. Obama seems determined to prove them wrong.
Obama's soft yet principled style and his open-arms policy towards Russia are similar to his position on Iran. Russia is waking up from the slumber into which it fell after the end of the Soviet Union, and no one will be able to stop it. The question is whether the bear will wake up too hungry to attack anyone or look around and assess the new situation. In some ways, the Russian state apparatus is doing both. Russia is certainly adjusting itself to the new realities of the 21st century, i.e., a century where there are no granted empires, where accumulation of power is possible and meaningful only if it is legitimate, where power-sharing is a reality all actors, big and small, have to accept and where globalization will not tolerate blatant and repeated violations of the rule of law and human rights.
Is the Kremlin willing to make progress on these issues? Like all mediocre but true answers, we have to say yes and no. The Kremlin is not in love with democracy or transparency. Its primary concern is to rebuild Russia and give it its old glory. But this will not be possible as long as the Kremlin ignores the demands of the Russian people for more opening up, civic engagement and political representation. The balance between the old ways of doing business and the new realities is a hard one; Russia today is witnessing this very battle. Obama was right when he said that Vladimir Putin, who for many represents both the old and new Russia, has one foot in the old way of doing things and the other in the new style of business.
Russia is a key neighbor of Turkey and a dominant player in our region. Improving Turkish-Russian relations can only serve the region better because Turkey is one of the few countries that have good relations with both Russia and Russia's global and regional rivals and detractors. Russia's legitimate concerns over security and stability can be addressed by projecting a new regional order whereby Russia neither believes that it is the sole boss of the region with no accountability to anyone nor feels that it is tossed around like a nonentity. Avoiding these extremes puts the onus of responsibility not only on the Russians but also on the US and Europe.
Turkey has been playing a constructive role in the face of a resurgent Russia and an increasingly suspicious Europe and US. By walking a middle path in the Georgian-Russian war last year, Turkey refused to be a party to the conflict. The so-called “moment of decision,” which some analysts predicted (and some recommended) for Turkey, never came. The reason is that Turkey did not give in to pressures to choose sides in a conflict that could have no winners. In a complicated region such as the Caucasus, today's winners can easily become tomorrow's losers.
Obama's open-arms policy toward Russia should be welcomed not only by Russians but by others in the region. Engaging Russia at the highest level will certainly give Russia a new sense of confidence but also responsibility. Isolating it will only deepen the sense of insecurity and refusal. Good relations between Washington and Moscow are also good for Ankara. This is especially true before Putin visits Turkey in August with a heavy agenda.
