It means, from today, any sense or perception of an increase in tension will have to be real. If one looks at the rolling events chronologically, while the authenticity of the document is being discussed and the Military Prosecutor’s Office reached its partly blurred conclusions, the following picture emerges.
The defensive attitude of the top command has been rather consistent. It is also reasonable to conclude that the meeting between İlker Başbuğ, the chief of general staff, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the prime minister, did end in clear disagreement.
First, the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) filed a lawsuit against whoever was behind what top general Başbuğ was later to call a “piece of paper” and secured a “channel for legal proceedings” for the events to come. This meant that the AK Party leadership, with Erdoğan in the lead, did not believe what Başbuğ had to explain in his tête-à-tête with Erdoğan. (The later statement of the Military Prosecutor’s Office should not, therefore, have come as a surprise for any AK Party observer.)
When the Military Prosecutor’svg Office tossed the ball to the civilian courts, one of the swiftest steps observed was the declaration that the Beşiktaş (İstanbul) office of the prosecutors would call Navy Col. Dursun Çiçek (and several other officers) to interrogation. It meant that a “channel into the Ergenekon case” is to be opened, as the inquiry shifts to that sphere.
The interrogation is due today, and the question of the presence or absence of the colonel will give us new clues of the “battle.”
This step also inevitably raises new suspicions that the document (“piece of paper”) might deliberately be “lost” during the initial inquiries.
Başbuğ also addressed the issue and called for civilian prosecutors to act. But, it is also open to interpretation: Some believe that the military is now sure that the document's original is never to be found and/or, as others claim, the top command now expects a new lead into the inquiry of leaks, its sources and daily Taraf.
Let us leave it at that.
Because a more concrete and surprising move has come to the fore.
It hit like a bolt of lightning over politics, an incident that has the nature of immediacy and unpredictability that marks Turkish politics.
In what must be called a historic step, Parliament on Friday night passed amendments to the Turkish Penal Code (TCK) and related laws. Overall and oversimplified, it means that military officers (and other military staff) on active duty will be tried in civilian courts for crimes -- called “heavy crimes,” except crimes committed during martial law and war. Furthermore, the amendments mean that no civilian will be tried in military courts.
The law, when in effect, will even cover ongoing trials such as Ergenekon. And the cases in military courts in which civilians are implicated will be dropped or transferred to the civilian courts.
This is a minor revolution: It means that, if suspected of involvement in such activities, the military staff will be facing civilian prosecutors and judges.
This move, whose seismic echo will be felt sooner rather than later, certainly, opens the scope of the battle for civilian control of the military.
The passing of the amendments came as a protest by the deputies. It means that the AK Party does believe that the “piece of paper” is very worthy of pursuit and that anything in the way must be removed.
Başbuğ sounded defensive all along during the past week. Some related this to the bad advice of his close circle: that he does not grasp the meaning of the momentum the “piece of paper” caused. Even most pro-military columnists, such as Mehmet Ali Kışlalı, are now warning that the “public diplomacy” of the chief of general staff has become “flawed.”
It is a time marked by the new fact that, whatever it does, the mighty, “mythical” military of Turkey is now talking to a wall. It has lost its legendary “pondus” for good.
Gen. Başbuğ also pointed out the next scene of the drama: He told the press, “We will take the case [of the document revealed by Taraf] to the next National Security Council [MGK] meeting.”
The meeting is due tomorrow, June 30. The top commanders will be facing, for the first time, the new members of the Cabinet after the reshuffle. Fiercely pacifist and keenly critical of the military's interference in civilian politics, Bülent Arınç, the deputy prime minister, will also be there.
It is bound for tension.
Given the moves and firm positions taken, expect a serious -- perhaps a decisive -- showdown in that meeting. The significance of the week should be alarming enough, needless to say; all keen observers of Turkey should pay very serious attention, since this critical stage might be a turning point for a new balance or a fall back in politics.
