The area, particularly Kirkuk, was subjected to ethnic cleansing during the reign of Saddam Hussein. He brought Sunni Arabs into the city, displacing other ethnic groups. Kurds claim that they constituted the majority and adopted a policy of repopulating the city after the fall of Saddam. This conscious effort on the part of Kurds to control Kirkuk and its oil wealth is disturbing for other peoples in the area who also see themselves as the rightful owners of the city and its environs. Baghdad is also against too much power and wealth for the Kurds and down in their hearts deem them collaborators of an alien invasion force, although that force has brought down their nightmarish tyrant. Given these factors a referendum on the fate of Kirkuk has been continuously deferred since the March 2003 US-led invasion. But the Kurds want no more postponement of what has been written into the new Iraqi Constitution. They want to assert their authority over Kirkuk, which will guarantee their economic autonomy if not an eventual independence. That is why the present stalemate is threatened by the upcoming delayed provincial elections.
In January 2009, Iraq held elections for new provincial councils. However, elections were deferred in Kirkuk and three other Kurdish provinces. With UN support, the Iraqi Parliament established a commission to determine how to resolve the problem, but the commission failed to reach a compromise acceptable to Kirkuk's multiethnic communities. The Kurds assert that they constitute the majority and that this numerical superiority should reflect their dominance in the provincial council. The Turkmen and Arab opposition wants equal (tripartite) representation on the provincial councils. Each party wants a part of the authority afforded by council seats that will eventually decide on the disposition of the natural wealth (oil and gas) of the region.
Oil and gas are indeed the source of conflict as well as the wealth of Kirkuk. Iraq's acknowledged gas reserves are the 10th largest in the world. An important part of this wealth is in the vicinity of Kirkuk. Now that the region's existing natural gas facilities are repaired and ready to meet internal and external needs, they whet the appetites of both Iraqis and foreigners, including the Nabucco consortium, which needs to fill their prospective pipeline.
Baghdad's Shiite and Arab-led government does not want all of Kirkuk and its richness to go to the Kurdish regional government. Their concern is not only economic. They also want to abort the Kurds' centrifugal tendencies when they feel economically self-reliant. That is why Baghdad declared independent contracts that the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) has signed with private oil firms to exploit fields in the northern part of the country invalid.
Turkey is also a player in the game on three levels: She rests her support of the KRG contingent on the elimination of Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) safe havens in KRG territory. Turkey feels a moral duty to protect the lives and interests of the Turkmen population in the Kirkuk region; Turkmens afford leverage to Turkey in the local affairs of the region. Turkey is closely entwined with the distribution of the area's natural resources.
The 600-mile Kirkuk-Ceyhan dual-export pipeline terminates at Turkey's Dortyol seaport on the Mediterranean coast. The pipeline's capacity was about 1.5 million to 1.6 million barrels per day before the invasion; however, it only operated at around 800,000 barrels per day. This pipeline is the most important export facility of northern Iraq and gives a great deal of leverage to Turkey on economic and political matters of the region, especially with the KRG. As an indication of normalizing relations between Turkey and the KRG, the Kurdish administration has begun to pump up to 100,000 barrels per day from two northern Iraqi oil fields into Turkey. The KRG hopes to raise exports to 250,000 barrels per day by mid-2010.
These are positive developments in the direction of the stability of this volatile region. However, no one can not really guess what will happen concerning the realization and the day after a plebiscite to determine whether Kirkuk, Ninawa, Diyala and Salahaddin provinces will become part of Iraq's Kurdish regions. Everyone is nervous. The outcome of the referendum will prove whether democracy can mix well with the wealth under the ground that will shape lives above it.
