No doubt there will be sighs of relief all around Europe when the baton changes hands in a few weeks' time, and the cool-headed, sensible Swedes take over. The Swedes have been careful not to pin themselves down to meeting specific priorities. Rather they say they will face a number of challenges, including helping coordinate individual member states' efforts to combat the economic crisis; getting a good agreement at the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference in December; preparing for the ratification of the Lisbon Treaty in the hope that there will be no big catastrophe with the second Irish referendum and implementing the Eastern Partnership.
Russia will also figure. Not just because there will be another summit but also because of energy security. On an almost daily basis, the Russian leadership is warning EU leaders that Ukraine will not be able to pay its gas bill and that Russia may be forced to turn off the gas again -- more than 60 percent of the EU's gas comes via Ukraine's decrepit gas transit system. Because Ukraine's Naftogaz is on the brink of bankruptcy, the Ukrainian government is continually having to bail it out, which will become increasingly difficult given that Kiev is fighting the worst economic situation the country has seen for years; at the same time its leadership continues to preoccupy itself with the forthcoming presidential elections, choosing to spend their time discrediting each other rather than uniting on crucial issues. The energy sector is incredibly corrupt, and shady deals continue to be made with very little political will shown to clean things up. Furthermore, because the deal that Ukraine signed with Russia obliged them to buy 40 billion cubic meters of gas, regardless of whether there is a market for this much in the EU, it seems difficult to see where Ukraine will get the money to pay for it. Therefore, it is not unlikely that Russia may decide to cut off the gas as it did in January, even though Russia itself can ill afford this given its own crippling financial situation. In January Gazprom lost billions. So Sweden will need to keep a close eye on this situation and prepare well for another crisis. Russia's goals remain the same: continue to discredit Ukraine as a reliable partner for the EU; find a way of taking over Ukraine's transit system thereby getting an even bigger grip over the EU market; and get a Russia friendly president elected in January...
Coming to Turkey, expectations have been high that Sweden would be able to wave a magic wand and drive the stalled EU process forward. Sweden is a strong supporter of further enlargement and has been a good friend to Turkey, but given that the end of the year could see Turkey's relations with the EU hit rocky waters, expectations should be kept in check. It is even likely that because of the current lack of reforms combined with Turkey's failure to comply under its EU customs union vis-à-vis its extension to the Republic of Cyprus, no new negotiating chapters will be opened. To prevent this Turkey needs to do reforms and demonstrate that its talk is being transformed into actions. Ankara should get some big reforms under its belt. I keep hearing the excuse that some of the “biggies,” like the opening of the Halki Seminary, will require constitutional reform so are not feasible because the opposition would block them. No matter, the government should bring these reforms to Parliament and if the opposition blocks them, the opposition (particularly Deniz Baykal) will be exposed for what they really are. Next week, chief negotiator Egemen Bagis will make two speeches in Brussels, so I am hoping he will be giving good news on the reform front and not just making more lip-service.
Ongoing Cyprus negotiations between the two Cypriot leaders are making slow progress. The Greek Cypriots continue to point the finger of blame at Turkey, claiming in particular that the military sets conditions for Turkish Cypriot leader Mehmet Ali Talat. One issue they cite relates to the opening of Limnitis checkpoint. Greek Cypriots claim the Turkish military is preventing the opening because of two preconditions: Greek Cypriots should provide electricity to the town, and the second that they demand that fuel pass through Greek Cypriot territory to a Turkish military outpost. It is clear that such demands play right into the hands of the Greek Cypriots, who will manipulate them to their own advantage. Limnitis has become very symbolic because talks have been going on for over a year, and its opening should be made a priority. At the same time Turkey could show “goodwill” and propose the opening of one or two ports to the Greek Cypriots. These things combined with reforms would give a boost to relations with the EU and help Turkey make it through the end of the year without a December Tsunami.
