While it may serve domestic purposes to describe the situation in this manner, given that Austria is one of the most xenophobic states in the EU and making such remarks almost automatically improves your popularity, at the same time this assessment is not correct. Without doubt there is a serious problem surrounding the pace at which and the environment in which the negotiations are carried out, but they are not frozen. Rather, I would describe them as being chilly. The blame lies on both sides -- on the one hand, Turkey has carried out virtually no reforms for at least the last two years, while on the other hand, certain EU member states, Austria included, continue to undermine the process either by sending negative messages concerning the final outcome or by creating unnecessary obstacles that do not allow new negotiating chapters to be opened. Therefore a ping-pong blame game is under way -- Turkey blames the EU, the EU blames Turkey, not much happens and the vicious circle continues. As long as this state of affairs remains, those opposed to Turkey are the winners because Turkey is falling into their trap. But as I have said in previous columns, this behavior is not going to change in the near future, and Turkey has to learn to live with it. At the end of the day, Turkey is the “demander”; it was Turkey that applied for membership and it was Turkey that committed itself to carrying out the necessary reforms to this end. Therefore, whatever else, it is primarily up to Turkey to move the reform process forward and to stop looking for scapegoats. If Turkey is really serious, it needs to get on with the job in hand. Stop talking about doing reforms and just do them.So what is happening? The government is keeping up the image that the EU project remains a priority, including maintaining regular visits by Turkey's chief negotiator, Egeman Bağış, to Brussels. He has been here several times since he was appointed in January, although what he actually does during his time here is still something of a mystery to me. I can only imagine that he keeps repeating what great efforts are being made back home to meet benchmarks in order to allow for the opening of new chapters while at the same time explaining what new reforms are in the pipeline. While clearly Bağış is not to blame for this lack of action, it must be rather frustrating for him as he visibly wants to get on with the job he is being paid for. The real responsibility lies with Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who still seems to be hesitating -- to coin the phrase usually used for US-Russia relations -- to put his finger on the “reset” button and relaunch the reform process with vigor and enthusiasm.
But to be fair, there is some movement in Ankara and at a recent meeting of the governments so-called “EU Reform Monitoring Group” on May 22, it was apparently decided that the reform process needed to be accelerated -- especially those related to the judiciary, anticorruption measures and personal data. Let's hope to see concrete results soon. Furthermore, Turkey needs to keep its eye on the clock. The European commission will soon begin preparing the 2009 Progress Report while at the same time the Turkish Parliament will go on summer recess. Another year cannot pass by with virtually no reforms taking place, and there is a limit to how long the EU will accept the launching of a Kurdish television channel and the appointment of Bağış as evidence of Turkey's commitment. This is not just about receiving a more positive report -- it is also about Cyprus. At the end of the year, the European commission will issue its opinion on progress made by Turkey towards normalizing relations with the Republic of Cyprus and in particular developments vis-à-vis extending its customs union. Unless there is a resolution to the Cyprus problem, Turkey is not gong to do this and it seems highly unlikely a solution will be reached anytime soon with peace talks going at a snail's pace. Therefore the commission will be looking for some candies to placate those who are holding Cyprus to Turkey's head like a gun. Firstly, Turkey being able to demonstrate that it is playing a constructive and positive role in the peace talks will be good. It seems the government is doing this. Prime Minister Erdoğan gave a clear message to Prime Minister Derviş Eroğlu that he should not create problems for Turkish Cypriot leader Mehmet Ali Talat. At the same time, it would be useful if Turkey could show it has carried out some of the reforms the EU has been asking for. Luckily Turkey will also be in the fortunate position of having Sweden at the EU helm and Stockholm should be able to steer Ankara though these rocky waters and prevent further frostbite from setting in -- at least in the short term anyway!
