Just as Turkey is apparently attempting to give a fresh push to its EU reform process, after a long period of being comatose, the French and German leaders -- coincidently a few days before the European Parliament elections -- decided to join forces and repeat what everybody already knows: that they remain steadfastly against Turkish membership. While Sarkozy repeats that Turkey does not belong to Europe, Merkel states that enlargement cannot go on forever -- although I am sure it will go on long enough to see the countries of the Western Balkans securely in the EU fold. According to them, the EU should stop making vain promises to Ankara and offer it "a privileged partnership" instead, or as Sarkozy more recently talked about, an “economic and security forum,” whatever that might be. At this point, even though I have no doubt there are many in Turkey who would like to explore these possibilities further, Turkey will never accept such alternatives. After all, who would accept a Lada when you have been promised a Mercedes? For a proud nation like Turkey, it would represent a massive humiliation. Furthermore, Turkey already has a privileged relationship with the EU although the EU gets more from it than Turkey at the present time. For example, under the EU-Turkey Customs Union, Turkey has to align itself to EU positions when, for example, the EU negotiates bilateral trade agreements with third countries, regardless of whether they are in the interest of Turkey. Indeed, Turkey does not even get a seat at the table.And while such statements may not represent the official voice of the EU, given that all the documents between the EU and Turkey cite the end goal as full membership, they clearly impact the reform process and give fuel to those in Turkey that remain skeptical or out-right opposed to membership. In addition, they also serve to erode the credibility of the EU as an honest partner. As President Abdullah Gül recently said, this sort of behavior is unacceptable. No previous candidate country -- or present one -- has ever faced such an unambiguous approach from the EU, but then again the EU has never had to deal with a candidate country on Turkey's scale before -- and probably never will again, unless one day Russia decides to apply.
However, realities have to be faced. As long as Sarkozy and Merkel remain in office, neither one is going to change their views. Therefore, Turkey has two choices. Ankara can either continue to moan and groan about the unfairness of it all, hide behind the skirts of Sarkozy and Merkel, using their opposition as an excuse to continue to do very little, which is precisely what Merkel and Sarkozy want them to do. As long as Turkey seems to be reluctant to make reforms, it plays into the hands of those that are opposed to it. Almost two months after the municipal elections, I still fail to see the big-bang re-launched reform process that Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan talked earnestly about during the first part of this year. It seems to me that it is always just around the corner.
Or Ankara can start thinking outside the box and turn the other cheek. Turkey should not allow itself to be provoked and knuckle down to work. Ankara should take on board yesterday's EU-Turkey Association Council report and start to make serious inroads into much awaited reforms in the areas outlined in it. Not only will this be a slap in the face to Merkel and Sarkozy, but it will also be food for all those leaders (UK, Poland, Italy, Spain, Sweden, etc.) who stand behind Turkey and want them to get back on track. Once Turkey does this, Merkel and Sarkozy will have less to say.
Although EU membership may not be a matter of life or death for Turkey, there is no doubt that the process offers Turkey a road map to transform the country and a strong anchor to the West. This road-map will continue to be difficult to read and there will continue to be deviations and wrong turns, but the benefits of getting to the end will be reaped far into the future by Turkey's young generation whether or not Turkey is part of the EU. As for Merkel and Sarkozy and their “we want Turkey with us but not within us” strategy, all we can hope is that more visionary leaders replace them some time soon and clearly domestic politics will not be won or lost on whether or not the candidate supports Turkish accession. Sarkozy and Merkel may choose to bulldoze the EU's credibility; Turkey's leadership should not make the same mistake, and keep its credibility intact.
