Even at that time expectations were raised that Erdoğan would take the bold step of rising to the occasion to face Turkey's challenges for change with a renewed list of ministers.The result became, as time has shown, what many regard as a period wasted by a Cabinet weary of too many challenges and seemingly acting without a compass. Reforms were stalled due to a thorny closure case against the AK Party, and just as it was becoming hopeful about a new leap after a non-closure verdict by the top court, the global economic crisis entered the stage.
After a month of reflection and soul searching (following local elections at the end of March), Erdoğan announced a powerful change within his team. This reshuffle is, according to many observers, myself included, bigger in magnitude than expected. Nine new people were appointed ministers while eight were removed from the Cabinet. Only 10 kept their posts. Erdoğan is signaling through his choices that he has felt the impact of the local elections, has given serious consideration to the eight-point loss of his party on the national scale and has invested in a government to carry his policies to the next elections.
It was rather clear that his journey after March 29 would be an arduous one, and he gambled by laying out a consolidated political line: Conservatism at the center, with a strong focus on the management of the economy and with a narrowed scope on reforms.
The prime minister seems to have based his deliberations on various factors the local elections made visible: Voters' perception of the economic crisis, what he saw as misleading advice on local candidates in some provinces, the "political threat of the ultra-conservative Felicity Party [SP]," the need to "pre-empt" corruption allegations and mismanagement and the enormous challenges in foreign policy.
The greatest shift, naturally, is at the Foreign Ministry. And yet it came as no surprise. Babacan, an extremely reliable asset to both President Abdullah Gül and to Erdoğan, was rather uneasy at his post, despite the fact that he had quickly improved his skills in international affairs over the past year. Yet, he knew his reputation stemmed from elsewhere: He, as the "captain" of the economy, represented the remarkable success of the AK Party government in its first five years. Babacan is, quite certainly, glad to be back where he belongs. But he will have a greater responsibility to take the ship through extremely dire straits. Erdoğan was clear when he declared the other day that the economy was a top priority and that a tight coordination (under Babacan) was needed. This meant that Nazım Ekren, who had to leave the Cabinet after less than two years, did fail. Erdoğan's hope is that Babacan will, both domestically and internationally, be a name strong enough to restore confidence and forge a way forward.
The new foreign minister, Ahmet Davutoğlu, is not new in many respects. For a long time he has acted as somewhat of a shadow minister, helping shape the entire Turkish foreign policy, and was the one who shifted it from a passive one to a proactive one, bringing Turkey forth as a visible player in the regional and global arena. Davutoğlu is a visionary, with powerful self-esteem and high energy; few doubt his knowledge of the Middle East, but the question will remain whether or not he will be able to produce a magic wand to deliver on issues such as normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations and, more importantly, Cyprus, an obstacle on the path of Turkey's EU membership.
The third important name is Bülent Arınç, a former speaker of Parliament, but more significantly, one of the "founding fathers" of the AK Party (with Erdoğan and Gül), a deeply conservative and extremely candid, outspoken politician on the conservative flank. The choice of Arınç is a move by Erdoğan to decrease the influence of the rival SP and to revive the AK Party's internal spirit. The military should not have been happy about the choice either: Arınç, appointed deputy prime minister and known for his anti-militarist views, will be present in National Security Council (MGK) meetings from now on.
As much as the choice of liberal Ms. Nimet Çubukçu as minister of education has been seen as commendable, the appointment of Sadullah Ergin -- a conservative but reclusive name from the party leadership -- as minister of justice is a puzzle. Ergin is a hard-working politician, but doubts must remain until he takes steps to launch the expected constitutional reforms.
Overall, the reshuffle, carefully designed by Erdoğan, is also aimed at keeping the AK Party away from erosion. He calculates, as he did in his first years as the head of government, that economic success will play a primary role in its popularity and strength. But it is dealing with a society in transition, demanding further political reform. Whether or not the new government will be capable of managing that process will hang above it as a big question mark.
