Most comments I have read or heard reflect upon a much calmer atmosphere than, let's say, five years ago, at the time of the European Union accession of the southern part. This ongoing split of the island is, of course, the reason for many, if not all, of the problems the population in the northern part of Cyprus is currently facing.Let me be frank: The EU made a grave mistake in allowing a non-reunified Cyprus to join it in 2004. By doing so, the EU demonstrated a lack of both diplomatic skills and political foresight that was until then unheard of. There had of course been many minor and a good number of major glitches coming from Brussels before the year 2004, but the Cyprus decision opened up a whole new dimension.
Traveling back in time, we need to briefly look at the years between 1986 (when Spain and Portugal became EU member states) and the mid '90s, when another mini-enlargement (including Austria) took place. As politicians and observers debated whether it would be better to first deepen the community of 12, or soon to be 15, or indeed widen it at the same time, its people lost track counting EU summit family photos portraying smiling EU and national politicians, while most of the substance of EU polices remained questionable -- think common agricultural policy and foreign policy making, to name only two such areas. EU enlargement had become a rather academic issue and much less of a topic for its citizens. Part of this dilemma was that very few cared to monitor Brussels when it came to giving promises to other potential future candidate countries. A wider part of the dilemma was that the European Parliament was not yet a fully fledged decision-making body.
Two of these candidate countries for future EU membership were Malta and Cyprus. A combination of historical ties with existing EU member states at the time -- the United Kingdom in particular, Greece to a much lesser extent -- and the fact that, with the size of its population and its relatively stable economy, its membership did not pose any serious problems for the EU's administration meant that Cyprus was a near-guaranteed "yes." The only remaining question was "when" and no longer "if"!
Both the Republican Turks Party (CTP) and the winner of last week's election, the National Unity Party (UBP), face an uphill struggle to get the local economy back in shape while not forgetting that the ultimate tool in achieving exactly that is reunification. Election analyses will focus on why voters decided that not only does the promise of a unified island make them tick -- and tick their ballot boxes accordingly -- but so do worries about broken promises from Brussels and indeed a, generally speaking, unfavorable economic climate. This shows that local politicians did not properly explain the link between these issues! However, one such issue they cannot and should not be asked to explain, as they are not responsible for it, is the ongoing economic isolation and political near-isolation of the northern part of Cyprus that is constantly exhibited by the EU.
President Mehmet Ali Talat does not have too much time left to push reunification talks. He now has a unique opportunity to include the winning party in his negotiation team. Very often, explaining the limitations of realpolitik helps people remove obstacles together. The UBP must tell its core voter base why a divided island is not an option at all. There is, of course, another set of key actors that make matters more complicated: I am talking about Ankara and Brussels. The Turkish government, under Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, must support the unification process with all its power while avoiding the appearance of being the elder statesman who knows everything better. Ankara has three years to do that as no elections, local or national, are scheduled. The two elections all actors must focus on are the European Parliament elections this June and the fact that President Talat may or may not be in power come the end of the year 2010, as presidential elections will take place before then, if not sooner.
The EU will not do anything too serious until after the European Parliament elections. A new European Commission president will be elected -- or indeed the current office holder will be reconfirmed in his post. There is the Lisbon Treaty -- which by now has become more of a Damocles sword in the sense of doing more harm than good to further integration -- but whether or not Lisbon is ratified should not impact a speedy reunification of Cyprus, including accepting the northern part as a full EU member immediately after reunification, similar to when Germany was reunited. There are no longer any valid arguments against supporting the reunification of Cyprus as far as Brussels should be concerned. Ankara could use a reunified Cyprus and the immediate personal liberties citizens of EU member states enjoy to keep the domestic reform process on track, as a "role model" and blueprint would be created a few hours away from the Turkish mainland. Returning to my comments about the historical dimension of having Malta and Cyprus join the European Union, one should reconsider having both London and Athens as confidantes rather than portraying them as foreign powers; all actors should be more outspoken about the benefits of a unified island -- benefits for all citizens, that should read!
The key to all this lies, however, in Cyprus itself, and the elections held on April 19, 2009, reflect this fact. Hopefully Cyprus is entering calmer waters and will see a little change in direction toward promoting unity.
