In a sense, we are watching a change of wind similar to the one which five years ago brought the southern, Greek Cypriot side into a mood to say no to the Annan peace plan. Now it is, as it were, the Turkish Cypriot side's turn. The governing Republican Turks Party (CTP) -- President Mehmet Ali Talat's former party -- which has been leading the unification process on its side of the divide, looks like a loser in the latest poll (conducted by KADEM for the Kıbrıs daily).While the CTP struggles to cling to 27 percent of the vote, its archrival, the National Unity Party (UBP), a political force, is pledging a disruption in the talks and is expected to be the winner with above 43 percent. The third contender, the Democrat Party (DP), led by Denktaş Jr., Serdar Denktaş, looks to secure enough seats to claim a place in a probable coalition.
It is hard to find anyone among Turkish Cypriot observers who can explain why the CTP looks to be losing. Some point to the "fatigue" of the EU, due to EU's unkept promise to lift sanctions, but others disagree, saying that the negative growth in the economy, an unbroken trend since 2007, is the main reason.
No one really knows what will happen to the tête-à-tête talks between Talat and Dimitris Christofias if the UBP secures a majority to form a government, although only a few believe it possible. Yet, it cannot be taken as a wild guess. "Then we will hit a wall," a well-informed source from Talat's office said. What kind of wall? "UBP leader Derviş Eroğlu might pass a decree in Parliament limiting Talat's jurisdiction in the talks, define a narrowed down scope of talks and, as Talat once did with Rauf Denktaş, Eroğlu might also demand to join him when the critical phase of talks begins later in 2009."
Sources say that despite Ankara's unchanged resolve and "flexible and easy" relations with Turkey's current top command (much easier than the times when the former top commander, Gen. Yaşar Büyükanıt, ran it his way), even a coalition will have a "somewhat negative" impact.
The hope in Talat's office is that Ankara keeps its resolve, untouched by the results of local elections in Turkey, which also set in motion some "ultranationalist" elements. "Let us pray bureaucracy in Ankara does not become affected by that," a source well placed in the process told me.
Talat says that his talks with Christofias are going "well." Such was not the mood half a year ago. Two community leaders -- and presidents -- who once shared an ideal of communist utopia concluded the first round of the chapter the "United island's relations with the EU" and the "Share of power and joint government." They agreed on about 80 percent of the content, which to any outsider should sound like a real achievement.
Three more principal chapters remain and are due to be concluded by the end of June: "Economy" (which should take around four weeks), "Territory" (another two weeks) and "Security" (perhaps another three to four weeks). The Turkish Cypriot side does not see any serious trouble in the economy chapter, but forecasts some hardship on the other two. However, as Sweden takes over the leadership of the EU in July, the two leaders will go over the chapters once more before they start the real "horse trading" from September on. If all goes well, the communities on the island will go to a referendum on the joint plan early next year, possibly -- and ideally -- before northern Cyprus's presidential elections in April 2010.
Talks with Turkish and Greek Cypriot sources give a strong impression that both leaders want to achieve a result: Their genuine intent is tied to their political careers. But a lot depends not only on next Sunday's elections in northern Cyprus, but also -- for the Greek Cypriot side -- on the European Parliament elections to be held in two months. As the prospect of a CTP-DP coalition seems to be a way out for continued rapprochement, so does the fresh initiative by the Progressive Party of Working People (AKEL) to warm up its relations with the liberal Democratic Rally Party (DISI) on the Greek Cypriot side.
Consensus on both sides, it seems, will be a prerequisite to end the divide. If the two leaders feel strong support behind them and if the EU in the remaining part of the year displays an energetic and fair engagement to encourage the two comrades, both of whom are by any standard "European," we may feel assured of a happy ending.
