The Justice and Development Party (AK Party) lost votes, 8 percent compared to the 2007 elections and 3 percent in comparison with the 2004 local elections. Does this result amount to a defeat for the AK Party?Certainly not. The AK Party received 39 percent of the vote, which is enough to have a parliamentary majority in Turkey and in most Western democracies, probably. I would like to remind you all how shockingly high the AK Party votes were perceived in the 2002 elections, when the AK Party came to power with 34 percent of the vote. It was seen as such because, given the fragmentation of Turkish politics along various political parties, reaching the level of 34 percent was an incredible success. What about 39 percent of the vote? The last time a political party received such a high amount of support from the electorates was the 1984 local elections. In fact, since then, there has been no political party that won even 30 percent of the vote until the AK Party's electoral success in 2002.
So when we put the AK Party's performance in its historical context, it is obvious that even this reduced share of the vote is among the rare electoral victories in Turkish democracy.
The AK Party remains a party that garners votes from all over Turkey. In all electoral districts, the AK Party is either the first or the second party. Its votes do not fall below 20 percent in any province. It is the leading party in 62 of the country's 81 provinces. The nearest contender is the Democratic Society Party (DTP), which came in first in nine provinces of eastern and southeastern Turkey. The Republican People's Party (CHP) came in first in only seven provinces, and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) in two. Such a political landscape does not translate to any achievement for the opposition parties.
This is even the case in the Southeast. The AK Party lost votes there, but it still remains the leading party. On average, the AK Party received 40 percent of the vote in the Southeast; this figure is 30 percent for the DTP.
In short, given the fact that the AK Party is in its seventh year in government and that the elections took place amid a global economic crisis which is leading to a revision in the basic principles of capitalism, the AK Party's hold on 39 percent of the vote is a success.
When we look at the performance of opposition parties, it is ludicrous to declare them victorious. The main opposition party, the CHP, received 23 percent of the vote; in other words, 16 percent less than the AK Party. Yes, the CHP increased its share of the vote -- by 2 percent compared to the 2007 general elections. But compared to 2004, the CHP share dropped from 24 percent to 23 percent, a fact that no one ever mentions.
Moreover, the CHP's performance does not look promising. The CHP came first in only seven of the 81 provinces. Is this a good performance for a party that claims to be the main opposition, an alternative, to the ruling party? What is even more worrisome for the CHP is the level of votes it got in each electoral region: The CHP stood below 10 percent in 26 provinces. In 17 provinces, it even stood below 5 percent. This is not a good performance of a "national" party and clearly means that the CHP is in no way viewed by the people as an alternative to the ruling AK Party.
To win the national elections, a political party should be able to receive votes from throughout Turkey, crossing ethnic, religious and socio-economic boundaries. The CHP is far from reaching out to voters with different regional, ethnic and identity backgrounds.
To exaggerate a 2 percent increase in votes the CHP received is misleading. It may be disorienting for the CHP to identify its shortcomings and remedy them before the next general elections. It is a must for all opposition parties to read Turkish politics realistically in order to come up with a strong, imaginative and appealing alternative program and perspective vis-à-vis the ruling party. If they really believe that they have defeated the AK Party in these local elections, they may continue to lose in the future.
