If Turkey had held general elections instead of local elections last Sunday, the AK Party would have came out as the ruling party once again. Some parts of the AK Party's fortresses need to be repaired, but there are no gaps in the ramparts. The AK Party lost in places that were former Republican People's Party (CHP) fortresses, places where the AK Party had weak candidates and where there were problems between the AK Party administration and the candidates. The AK Party is popular all across Turkey, but the main opposition party, the CHP, is holding on only along the Thracian and Aegean-Mediterranean coastlines and hasn't been able to move inland toward central Anatolia or eastern and southeastern Anatolia. A closer look at the distribution of votes suggests that people are becoming polarized. In provinces where the CHP won most of the votes, the AK Party won between 25 and 30 percent and even 35 percent of the vote. But in a total of 40 provinces where support for the CHP has been low for nearly 20 years, the opposition party won between just 2 and 5 percent of the vote.The CHP has failed to win in the last eight elections under the leadership of Deniz Baykal. A large portion of voters who want the CHP to become the ruling party insist that Baykal must step down as leader of the party. This sentiment is shared by the media, which attempted to make a leader out of the CHP's mayoral candidate for İstanbul, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, by comparing him to Gandhi. Isn't this an insult to Gandhi?
Another significant portion of CHP supporters, however, is trying to explain that the CHP's loss in 40 provinces isn't related to its leader. The CHP's problems aren't about leadership, but about connecting with the public. The CHP cannot hold on to its constituents. It obtains its strength from the government and acts like it is a party of and for the state. What's worse is that it is not disturbed by doing this. Some associate the CHP's successes in İstanbul in the most recent elections with the party's attempt to depend on the people. The extent to which the chador initiative, proposals for Quran courses and the nomination of a retired imam as a candidate were perceived as attempts to connect with the public hasn't been analyzed but, in theory, the CHP was turning toward the people.
These elections suggest that the CHP will have to make an important decision regarding its practices. Will the CHP truly start focusing on the people? Or is it too tired to take on such a challenge? The CHP's decision may prevent the people from becoming polarized in Turkey. If the CHP decides to get its strength from the people, the path to democratization will be cleared. How? If the CHP starts to focus on connecting with the people it will stop depending on the Constitutional Court and the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK). Turkey will become normalized. The message most voters sent in the elections was: "We do not want the judiciary and the military to intervene in politics. The public must be trusted. People are not arrogant. We can live peacefully together."
If the CHP obtains its strength from the people, it will not turn to the Constitutional Court or believe that the dissolution of the AK Party will enable it to become the ruling party. It will take a stance against military memorandums and it will realize that it must respect the values of the public. It will stop insulting the significant number of religious and conservative people in Turkey with its heavy-handed understanding of laicism. It will defend democratic laicism, which the European Union advocates, and stop using laicism as a vehicle to impose certain political views. The CHP will become a secular party that respects these values.
If the CHP obtains its strength from the people, it will no longer be an impediment to democratization. Turks want democratic reforms that will allow Turkey to advance its democracy to a level that will match its power in the region and accelerate its EU bid. If the CHP allows for these changes to occur, eastern and southeastern Anatolia will flourish, as the people in the region will be able to escape the influence of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and understand the importance of democratization and the EU for peace and prosperity in the region.
If the CHP does not obtain its strength from the people, it will drown in debates over leadership and administration. After countless party assemblies and inconceivable tricks, Baykal will once again defeat his opponents and the CHP will remain the same. It won't find peace within itself or bring peace to the country.
