It has been almost two years since the Justice and Development Party's (AKP) last electoral victory in July 2007. After winning 47 percent of the vote, the AKP had a strong mandate for major constitutional reforms toward EU membership. There was a great window of opportunity to change the anachronistic Turkish Constitution; yet, no one can deny that the country wasted these last two years.
A few months after its 2007 victory, the AKP found itself fighting for political survival. Instead of moving closer to the European Union, Turkey came to be seen by Europe as a country at war with its own religious, political and ethnic identity. Simply put, the country was at war with itself for the majority of the last two years. After all, how else can one explain a constitutional system determined to ban the government party for undermining secularism? Or how can one rationalize a political system that tries to shut down the only Kurdish party in the Turkish Parliament for undermining national unity? Unfortunately this is the real legacy of the last two years. Turkey wasted the last two years. As a result, the country is farther away from the goal of EU membership than it was in 2007.
To be fair, global dynamics made things even more difficult for Turkish-EU relations. A major complicating factor for Turkey's EU chances has been the global economic downturn. Today the EU has a hard time maintaining its own cohesion. Countries such as Hungary, Ireland, Spain, Lithuania, Greece, Bulgaria and Romania are on the brink of default. Faced with financial collapse and a banking crisis, the EU is in no mood to enlarge further. If anything, Brussels seems to regret its expansion to Central and Eastern Europe in 2005. Unemployment will unavoidably skyrocket in Western Europe in the next few months, and it will simply become impossible to sell Turkey's EU membership to French and German voters.
Amid all of this gloom and doom in Europe, it will be up to Turkey itself to move forward with political and economic reforms. Turkey will have to do so despite the EU's growing reluctance. To prove the skeptics wrong, Turkey will need to clean its own house. So, what will be the impact of local elections on Turkey's chances with the EU? The AKP will surely win this election as well. The real question, however, is whether it will be able to govern. I am pessimistic. Strong electoral victories do not translate into strong governments in Turkey. Just look at what happened after July 2007 for evidence. Instead, there seems to be a perverse Turkish political dynamic: the higher the margin of victory for the AKP, the higher the political polarization. Can the country avoid this vicious political cycle this time?
I am not sure. A lot depends on Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Beyond just words, he has to prove with real political acts a willingness to forge a national consensus for a new Constitution. Issues such as religious freedom, secularism and headscarves should not be allowed to become top priority once again. Instead the focus should be on the constitutional freedoms of speech, press and assembly. Unlike in 2007, without wasting time, a new pro-democracy and pro-EU Constitution should be ratified by Parliament. There are no longer any excuses for the AKP. It has a strong parliamentary majority. It is time to use this majority cleverly, by establishing democratic coalitions with willing deputies representing the opposition. The AKP also urgently needs to find ways to galvanize Turkey's waning enthusiasm for the EU. This has to be done despite Europe's reluctance to embrace Turkey as a full member. The AKP needs to remember that its own political survival depends on Turkey's European journey. This democratic European vocation is more important than the final destination. This is why the AKP's new slogan for the next two years should be "For the EU, despite the EU."
