No one raises objections to this general conviction, and we see no debate about it. Erdem, one of the most reliable polling researchers in Turkey, emphasizes that voters tend to support the three big parties while distancing themselves from the marginal parties. The ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party), the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) are increasing their electoral support, while the marginal parties (excluding the pro-Kurdish Democratic Society Party [DTP]) -- including the Democrat Party (DP), the Felicity Party (SP), the Motherland Party (ANAVATAN) and the Young Party (GP) -- are losing their voters. The most significant estimate is that the AK Party will be boosting its votes even though it is a ruling party. If these predictions really hold, the big parties that have been setting the political agenda in Turkey will also be the winning parties of this election. However, their gains with respect to each other will not be significant. Except for the fact that the AK Party will proceed with its projects with reinforced self-confidence, things won't change much for the CHP and the MHP.It follows that the election results will not bring about radical changes in the main course of the politics. On Monday, people will possibly not be talking about the election results, but will be resuming the ongoing debates that were interrupted during the election process. The reasons for this unchanging picture will also serve as a justification for the post-election agenda items. Then, we need to paraphrase the question as follows: What factors are shaping voter tendencies in favor of the three major parties and to the AK Party's benefit in particular?
The strongest element: stability
The main reason the voters supported the AK Party to form a single-party government in the 2002 elections was their adverse reaction to the three-party coalition government. Indeed, the three parties which were partners of the coalition government could not manage to enter Parliament. The nation was victimized in the financial crisis of 2001. People had empathized with Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who, like themselves, had been victimized as he had been imprisoned for reading a poem. Voter support for him was largely reactionary. In the 2007 elections, the people chose to maintain the stability created out of this reactionary support. The elections to be held tomorrow imply that this tendency toward stability is playing into the hands of the CHP and the MHP as well. Politics is concentrating on the center. Even the voters who are radically against the AK Party tend to opt for backing the parliamentary parties instead of going toward extremes. Politics are seeking a state of balance and stability.
The global economic crisis is having an impact on Turkey, increasing the unemployment rates and slowing down economic growth. Under normal circumstances, this would cause a drop in the electoral support of the AK Party. Given the fact that the AK Party maintains its support, it can be said that the nation is not placing the blame of this crisis on it. Perhaps people even think that only the AK Party has the capability to successfully manage the existing crisis. The CHP and the MHP do not have the capacity to maintain the stability created by the AK Party. For this reason, voters stay where they are and do not move between these parties.
After the election, the AK Party will continue its business with a renewed mandate for managing the economic crisis. It can even be said that the election results will mitigate the impact of the crisis. As a matter of fact, a great part of a good economic policy consists of psychology. The election will reinforce this psychological support.
Ergenekon
After the parliamentary elections, the AK Party was faced with a closure case that maimed Turkey. The Constitutional Court not only had canceled the constitutional amendments that lifted the headscarf ban in university campuses despite the fact that these amendments were overwhelmingly supported by the nation, it also had the inclination to close down the AK Party under similar justifications. The AK Party was not closed down, but it was found guilty. Thus, the Constitutional Court has started to enjoy a sort of de facto guardianship of the legislative and executive power. It turns out that the nation has not approved this. The election results, in a sense, will mean that this injustice is corrected.
During the election campaigns, the drafting of a new Constitution has not been debated. AK Party leader Erdoğan's words about passing a new constitutional amendment package after the elections have not triggered a discussion. The competition within the state, which was reflected by the decisions of the Constitutional Court and by the debates on the Constitution, has been shouldered by the Ergenekon investigation. People have started to think that the Ergenekon investigation will put an end to this shady and dubious competition for power. The Ergenekon investigation has been the underlying or implied main axis of this election. The recent announcement of the second indictment of the Ergenekon investigation has completely disrupted the election agenda. The claims included in this indictment are more important than the election results. They are also influential on the election results.
The second indictment shows that in addition to the political competition visible to voters, there has been a more influential and harsher political competition going on behind the scenes. The Ergenekon terrorist organization not only plotted to overthrow the government, but also tried to reorganize all of the political parties according to its wishes through illegal methods and conspiracies. It attempted to change the leaders of the CHP and the MHP. It tried to weaken the AK Party by targeting individual deputies.
These disclosures have naturally made the visible democratic competition seem insignificant. The Ergenekon investigation tells us that democracy will be only a showpiece if this organization is not completely eradicated. It is perfectly natural for voters to cast their votes with consideration of the future of the Ergenekon investigation. This explains why the AK Party's votes are increasing. The fact that the CHP has sided against the Ergenekon investigation and the MHP has only given feeble support to it explains why the predictions of the election results are as they are.
Kurdish issue
As we are nearing the elections, analysts tended to suggest that two simultaneous elections will be held: normal local elections and the elections to be held in southeastern provinces, especially in Diyarbakır, where the DTP is the main contender. The latter election would shape the future of the Kurdish issue. Initially, the DTP had supported a campaign of violent actions. After harsh reactions, it put an end to these actions. The DTP was planning to mobilize the Kurds by turning the election into a sort of referendum.
An unexpected thing happened and the Kurdish issue became the secondary item on the election agenda. This was because the US announced that it would withdraw from Iraq under the Status of Forces Agreement, which would change the influences in the region. The thawing of ice between Turkey and the regional government in northern Iraq moves the main axis of the Kurdish issue away from the local elections and to the region. Its pressure on the election campaigns was relieved.
This also came as a relief for the DTP. Now, it is a general conviction that the election results are not likely to create a radical change in the Southeast.
In a nutshell, the elections to be held tomorrow will not change things much and will also be remembered as elections verging on meaninglessness. Except for small local agendas concerning the newly elected mayors taking office, Turkey will resume its progress. We will see no considerable debates about election results.
