His surprising projection is that there will be no surprises at all. After judiciously scattering the "undecideds" and delving more deeply into the real intentions of the "don't knows," his survey shows that the relative standing of the two principal political parties is remarkably unchanged from last general elections. Indeed, the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) might even score a little bit higher than its 47 percent of the vote in July 2007.Of course these are not parliamentary elections, and local factors will play their role. The AK Party may lose the odd municipality and there may be upsets on the actual night. It is, nonetheless, remarkable that the prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan seems poised to produce another strong electoral performance in the middle of a world economic crisis and at a time when households are bracing themselves for austerity and even scarcer jobs. Professor Sencar's explanation for why the electorate appears reluctant to punish their rulers is simple. They don't see any better solutions or another leader on the horizon who promises them any greater hope.
What the MetroPOLL polls suggest is that this Sunday's ballot will not be determined by the great debates over the future of Turkish cities. In İstanbul, where I live, I would have hoped to see the candidates address the environmental cost of a third Bosporus bridge, or share the outrage which the city's NGO community feels for the cleansing of the millennia-old Roma neighborhood of Sulukule and its replacement with contrived Ottomanesque luxury houses -- a grotesque invasion of the historical peninsula and an act of ethnic discrimination not entirely dissimilar to the intrusive Israeli settlements on the West Bank. I would have liked the candidates to speak more openly about the future of the private motor car in the city, how the opportunities of declaring İstanbul a European Capital of Culture in 2010 can be better seized, about whether the impressive new public transportation schemes for the city will do what they say on the label. Instead, the election will be decided as a referendum on the party in national government and more particularly as a vote of confidence in the current prime minister.
The personality of Mr. Erdoğan continues to dominate Turkish politics. When he does something to arouse the voters' concerns (like suggesting the headscarf is a political symbol), the party's popularity dropped 10 points. When he criticizes the Israeli president at Davos, the next day the party soars in Sencar's opinion polls. The prime minister's approval rating in the country is high (after Davos, around 75 percent) and among the party faithful over 90 percent. Like the footballer he was once was, he has the skill to seize opportunities when they arise, but another of MetroPOLL's findings is that he is shooting at an open goal.
While Mr. Erdoğan carries his party to electoral victory, his principal rival, Deniz Baykal, is an anchor weighing the opposition down. He is not popular in the country and he is not even popular with three-quarters of his party's own supporters. Were he to step down in favor of a more dynamic leader and one in touch with the concerns of the electoral rank and file, the Republican People's Party (CHP) would make an immediate leap of 10 points, Sencar speculates. The spectacle of an opposition that has no prospect of coming to power is, ultimately, demoralizing, he contended at a meeting organized by the İstanbul-based Journalists and Writers Foundation. The failure to produce an effective democratic opposition in the end helps to legitimize those who would oppose the government through undemocratic means. The immediate price is that this Sunday's local elections will not be about local concerns.
