The event offered him the perfect opportunity to set the record straight on Turkey’s position on the Nabucco natural gas pipeline. Nabucco, a 3,300-kilometer pipeline, aims to decrease the EU’s dependence on Russian gas by bringing Caspian gas to a hub in Austria via the Balkans and, hopefully, Turkey. The project was launched in February 2002 when first talks took place between Austria’s OMV and the state-owned Turkish Pipeline Corporation (BOTAŞ). Since then it has made cripplingly slow progress. Even in light of the fact that energy diversification has become increasingly important, the EU seems to follow its usual method of going as fast at the slowest camel on the trail. The recent Ukraine-Russia gas crisis seems to have pushed the issue up the EU’s agenda, but that does not mean the new lip service to the project will translate into anything more.On the role of Turkey there have been questions over Ankara’s commitment for two primary reasons: Firstly, there were the comments by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan during a visit to Brussels earlier in the year when he linked Turkey’s support for Nabucco to its EU membership process and, in particular, the opening of the negotiating chapter on energy. Secondly, there have been a number of reports that Turkey is demanding too much for the role it will play -- by trying to obtain high levels of gas at a reduced price for domestic consumption while at the same time wanting to buy Azeri gas (or other Caspian gas sources) and then resell it on the EU market at a profit, making itself into a gas trader -- something that is totally unacceptable to the EU. However, Minister Güler claimed that Turkey was doing no such thing.
Güler said Turkey’s support for Nabucco was unconditional, that Ankara backed the project 100 percent and that it was actually divisions between EU member states that were responsible for the holdup. It is still not clear how the project, the cost of which is estimated to be some 8 billion euros, will be financed, and there are also concerns over whether the project will find sufficient gas resources to make it worthwhile. Moscow signed a deal with Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan in December on the flow of their Caspian Sea gas supplies through Russia, draining a main potential source of gas for Nabucco, while Azerbaijan (the planned first source country) remains undecided and is becoming increasingly fed up with Europe’s dithering. Azerbaijan has made it clear that Baku will not wait forever and that their final decision will be based on “commercial,” rather than geopolitical, considerations. In addition, a number of countries in the EU, including Nabucco Consortium members (with the exception of Romania), are flirting with other source countries, such as Russia and Iran. Turkey also supports striking a deal with Iran given the country’s vast gas reserves. However, unless there is a change in Iran’s stance on its nuclear program, this is unlikely to happen. Therefore, much will depend on what US President Obama decides on Iran and the Iranian reaction to it. Turkey has also pushed for Russia to be part of the project, although it has been clear to say it does not support filling the pipeline exclusively with Russian gas. However, again there is strong division in the EU on this.
The EU claims solidarity, but when it comes to putting up the money, it’s a different story. German Chancellor Angela Merkel has already said that the EU should not have to raise the funds for the project, arguing that the resources should come from private investors. Merkel’s attitude is not that surprising given that Germany is far more interested in Gazprom’s Nord Stream project, which would pass under the Baltic Sea. Recently a French diplomat also told me that he doubted whether Nabucco would see the light of day either and that for France it would not be a big deal considering the fact that most of their gas comes from other sources, as well as being heavily reliant on nuclear energy.
Whether Nabucco will ever materialize remains to be seen, but Turkey should not overplay its hand and the EU should get its act together. Interestingly, in the meantime a number of other projects have been dreamt up and built and are now pumping oil and gas, including, of course, the Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline and its sister, the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum (BTE) gas pipeline. Now the crucial day on the horizon is the May 9 inter-governmental conference.
And just on the blocked energy chapter, Commissioner Olli Rehn stated that if Turkey wanted to see its energy chapter opened, it would do well to refrain from “gunboat diplomacy,” a clear reference to Turkey sending its navy into the exclusive economic zone of the Republic of Cyprus to prevent them from exploring for oil and gas. Ankara would do well to heed this advice.
