Very few people saw this coming in Washington. I am sure there is a sense of puzzlement among most experts focusing on Turkish-American relations. Particularly after what happened at Davos, I had feared that Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan would be perceived in Washington as a liability rather than an asset. In my column titled "Is there Life after Davos?" I argued that "the Davos incident would bring considerable collateral damage to Turkish-American relations, particularly in areas such as the Armenian question and Turkey's mediation between Israel and Syria."Yet, despite such pessimism I ended that same column with this paragraph of hope: "The only silver lining regarding what happened in Davos last week is that President Obama may now start seriously considering Turkey as the country that he will pick to make a major speech addressing the Islamic world. The reason is simple. After the drama in Davos, Turkey has won the hearts and minds of 1.3 billion Muslims. In the eyes of all Muslims frustrated with the Israeli onslaught that ended up killing 1,300 people, half of them innocent civilians, Erdoğan is a global hero. As of last week, the Palestinian cause and Turkey are now one -- and all of this is thanks to the larger-than-life personality of Prime Minister Erdoğan. Whether the pro-Israel lobby likes it or not, President Obama is sophisticated enough to recognize these dynamics in selecting the country where he will make his speech to the Islamic world."
Well, we don't know if President Obama will make his much-expected speech to the Islamic world in Turkey. The first indications are that he will not. But at least I got the presidential visit part right. What we certainly know is that Turkey will be the first Muslim country President Obama will be visiting. And as one administration official said, speaking on condition of anonymity because the trip has not yet been officially announced, "In addition to consultations with an important NATO ally, the visit will also provide an opportunity to continue the president's dialogue with the Muslim world, a dialogue he started immediately and intends to maintain throughout his presidency."
Above all, the fact that the president of the United States is coming to Turkey illustrates his willingness to put an end to the downward slide in Turkish-American relations that began with the invasion of Iraq in 2003. An American president who opposed the Iraq war is now selecting a democratic country that also opposed the war and refused to help the United States for his first visit to the Islamic world. This symbolism should not be lost.
Given Turkey's high-profile role in the Middle East over the last few years, Obama appears to understand the value of restoring good relations. Probably for the first time in its relations with the superpower, Turkey is getting the presidential attention it deserves. That this is happening in a non-crisis environment is all the more remarkable. There were periods in the past, mostly during the Cold War, when Turkey entered Washington's top-priority agenda. But all of these came in times of crisis, like the Cuban missile crisis, the Johnson letter and Cyprus during the arms embargo. Now it's different.
What about the Armenian issue, one may ask. I am convinced that President Obama is timing this visit just a couple of weeks prior to April 24 for a reason. There are rumors that secrets talks between Ankara and Yerevan have reached a major breakthrough. What President Obama needs, however, is more than just rumors of a deal. He needs to see a tangible, concrete step coming from both Turkey and Armenia. These steps could be the opening of the Turkish-Armenian border and the establishing of official diplomatic relations between the two countries in the context of some progress in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Obama's visit to Turkey may provide the ideal time to launch this new Turkish-Armenian peace process with a "historic reconciliation treaty." Imagine what a major breakthrough this would represent for the whole region and American foreign policy.
