Would Medvedev be happy to stay in Putin's shadow, keeping the seat in the Kremlin warm for his mentor's return some time in the future, or would he tire of being seen as a caretaker president, break out and shape Russia more to his own taste? In the West there was hope that he would do just that, but so far, and not surprisingly, there has been little sign of disagreement. Overall, the Medvedev-Putin tandem has continued to function quite effectively during a year that, even by Russia standards, has been pretty tough and has seen the image of Russia plummet to near rock-bottom as the Kremlin has strived, one way another, to reassert itself on the world stage and, in particular, extend its role of influence in its former satellite states. A recent February survey conducted by the nongovernmental Levada Center, revealed that only 12 percent of those who took part believed that Medvedev was in charge of the country -- a drop of 11 percent since he was elected. Thirty-four percent believed Putin remained very much at the helm, while around half of those surveyed believed that President Medvedev and Prime Minister Putin shared power equally.The last 12 months have been rough, and any hopes the international community had about Medvedev ushering in a new type of Russia were quickly brought to an abrupt end. First there was the war with Georgia. Medvedev's visibility throughout was far less than that of Putin, who was continually on television and in the thick of things -- most notably when he traveled to the South Ossetian border to issue instructions to Russian troops. From an EU perspective, it was clear they were dealing with Putin, with French President Nicolas Sarkozy having almost daily contact with him while Medvedev was seen addressing the odd press conference. Then there was the gas crisis with Ukraine, which again showed Putin very much in charge and Medvedev rather silent throughout. We saw Putin in talks with Ukraine, Putin angrily throwing paper around his office, Putin smiling as he turned off the gas and Putin sealing a deal with the Ukrainian prime minister. In both these cases Medvedev seems to have been happy to take a back seat.
Only the economic crisis has revealed some cracks between the two men. When Medvedev arrived, Russia's economy was reasonably healthy with the crown jewel being Putin's reserve fund -- estimated to be over $500 billion (the third largest in the world), which he had amassed over the last few years from Russia's booming energy sector. At that time there were high expectations of the president to keep up the good work and spearhead growth. However, the reality today is that is has all been about stemming the decline. Russia's finances have taken a good battering from the crisis and falling oil prices, with its gross domestic product (GDP) forecast going from a 7 percent rise in 2008 to a 2 percent drop in 2009 and a considerable chunk of Putin's reserves being used, not the least in shoring up the rouble and bailing out the banking sector and other industries. Even Russia's top 10 billionaires lost an estimated $150 billion last year.
Russia's one sector economy has brought the nation almost back to its knees, a situation from which Putin spent most of the last eight years trying to improve. But nevertheless Putin has been throwing money around, propping up neighboring states that were badly hit by the economic crisis by offering them financial aid and loans -- another mechanism for them to gain political influence in and around their neighborhood. But here Medvedev has not been so quiet, and he was seen as taking a swipe at Putin when he said officials were working too slowly to ease the economic crisis.
Furthermore, his new cozy "fireside chats" to reassure the nation that Russia will survive the economic crisis, which were used so effectively by US President Franklin D. Roosevelt at the height of the Great Depression, are in sharp contrast to that of Putin, who has long relied on a brusque, aggressive tone in his dealings with the public. So far these chats have been welcomed by the nation, but whether he can (or even wants to) truly win the hearts and minds of the people remains to be seen. Given that Putin carefully chose Medvedev, I really doubt he has the capacity to oust his mentor and steal the nation for himself, and I would say Vladimir Putin, whether the world likes it or not, will be around for a long time to come.
